Defeating his Democrat rival Kamala Harris, Donald Trump won the 2024 election, taking over the White House for the second time. A shocking new report reveals that he would have still won if every registered voter showed up to the poll. The analysis by David Schor, who is the head of Blue Rose Research, unveils that instead of just the 1.7 points he surpassed Harris by, he would have earned the popular vote by five points had every registered voter turned up to the poll.
Speaking to Eric Levitz of Vox, Schor, who is a data scientist for the Democratic Party, said, “So I think that a ‘we need to turn up the temperature and mobilize everyone’ strategy would’ve made things worse.” He continued, “There were a lot of Democratic voters who were angry at their party last year.” According to the 26 million voters interviews in 2024, conducted by David’s firm, a large amount of registered Democrats turned against their own party. On the other hand, moderates and those who are disengaged favored the Republicans.
“They were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats angry about the cost of living and other issues. And even though they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican, a lot of them stayed home. But basically, their complaints were very similar to those of Biden voters who flipped to Trump,” Schor added.
According to the research, politically disengaged voters who kept neutral during the 2020 election, began turning up to the Republicans in 2024 by 15 points. David revealed that while Kamala Harris maintained her approval amongst the white liberals, white moderates, and white conservatives, much like the 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton, she faced a double-digit declines amongst the Asian and Hispanic voters.
This is David Shor of Blue Rose Research, a respected data scientist, confirming what we non-MAGAs know in our bones. Shor confirms why Mr. Trump favors, in Trump’s own words, the “poorly educated.” The less you understand what it going on in the world, the more you support Trump pic.twitter.com/oFbXvJKqGH
— Stephen Rodio (@SteveRodio) March 18, 2025
“After the cost of living, it was the size and scope of the federal government, the budget deficit, immigration, crime and also health care. And people trusted Republicans on these issues by double-digits – except for health care, where we had a two-point advantage, which was much lower than our traditional advantage on that issue. The reality is that, to the extent that Democrats try to polarize the electorate on self-descried ideology, this is just something that plays into the hands of Republicans,” the Blue Rose Research head concluded.
During the 2024 election, Donald Trump earned over 2.5 million votes more than he did in 2020, while his rival Harris saw a dip of seven million. The Republican President gained ground in all of the 50 states, including those called Blue. The groundswell of popularity propelled Trump to a decisive victory.
If CNN will admit it’s down to 29%, just how bad is it REALLY? pic.twitter.com/k5FEkUQWaS
— Jere_Memez (@Jere_Memez) March 16, 2025
Meanwhile, according a recent CNN poll, the approval for the Democratic Party has now hit a new low of just 29 percent, which is an at least 20 point dip since Trump left the White House 4 years ago. At that time the favorability was 49 percent. In addition, according a new NBC poll, released on Sunday, only 27 percent voters have a positive view of Kamala’s party, which is the lowest ever in the network’s polling.
On the other hand, The approval of Republicans has remained steady. The party stands at 36 percent including 79 percent approval among Republicans and leaning independents.
