Trump Hit by Shock Poll in Red State Where Democrats Haven't Won Statewide Since 1994

Latest polling data indicates that President Joe Biden is catching up on former president Donald Trump in the red state. In Texas, a Democrat last prevailed in a statewide election in 1994. Jimmy Carter won the state in a presidential election the last time a Democrat did so in 1976. According to a University of Texas survey, among registered voters, Trump received 46% of the vote and Biden 40%, while another 6% indicated they wished to vote for a different candidate. As per the Daily Mail, with just over four months left, it's likely going to be a much closer contest than many anticipated in a conservative state that Democrats have not won in twenty years. 

In Texas, only 25% of voters think that things are going well in the nation, while 73% believe it's headed south. Meanwhile, securing the US border ranked as Texas' top policy in the poll, standing at 38% while inflation, the second most crucial issue, ranked at 14%. Democrats, however, rated reproductive rights as the most crucial issue.

Interestingly, 51% of voters in the state had a very or somewhat negative opinion of Trump. But, 60% of voters in Texas also disagree with Biden's approach to leading the country. These results are similar to that of the 2020 elections when Trump won the state by a margin of just over 5.5%. He received approximately 52% of the vote.  

Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican, is running for reelection in the autumn, making it another significant race in the state. According to a recent poll, he is only four points ahead of Democrat Colin Allred among registered voters (43% to 39%). Among likely voters, his lead drops from 45% to 42%. Surprisingly, he is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in Texas. 34%, however, claimed they didn't know enough about Allred to form an opinion. Meanwhile, as per Fox4News, Trump's popularity index has increased in Texas after his recent convictions. 50% of Republican supporters in the state are "much more likely" to back him in the presidential contest now. According to 12% of respondents, it increased their likelihood of voting for him.

27% of Independent respondents reported that the conviction increased their likelihood of voting for Trump while 28% opined otherwise. As per Houston Public Media, Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, stated, "Right now, I think the best way to look at Kennedy's presence in the contest is that he doesn't provide a benefit or a detriment to either Trump or Biden...So, Kennedy's voters are relatively equally supportive of Trump and of Biden, and if you pull him out or reduce his support to the...core, it doesn't change the outcome of the overall race." 

"One of the reasons that Trump and Republicans more generally are doing better and better among Hispanics is the fact that Born-Again Christian Hispanics tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican. In contrast, Hispanics who have no real religious identification or are non-practicing, vote overwhelmingly Democratic, whereas Roman Catholics are pretty much split between Biden and Trump," Jones added. "While there's a 12% lead now for Trump when we look at some of the undecided voters, they tend to lean more Democratic than Republican. So, if Biden can mobilize those individuals to actually turn out when they turn out, they should vote for him and for fellow Democrats."