A recent nationwide poll has showcased a significant seven-point shift in favor of former president Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris . Dr. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, is perplexed by the most recent outcomes because he had originally predicted Harris to win. According to The Independent , Miller’s daily electoral vote estimates are posted on his website, The Virtual Tout . These forecasts are plotted against a timeline of significant events that may influence voters, such as the Trump assassination attempt on July 13 and the controversial JD Vance and Tim Walz debate that took place on October 1. On October 7, according to his calculations, the Republican leader had a lead of 270 to Harris’ 268, the recent numbers on the site indicate Trump/Vance – 275 and Harris/Walz – 263.
Not only does the data expert not know why the sudden shift in voter transformation occurred, but he is also not sure it will endure. “We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7,” he posted on the website. “Prediction markets are more reliable than pollsters and pundits,” Miller explained. “A betting market isn’t asking people to give an opinion or preference but to put their money down.” “When you put your money down, you believe what you are betting on,” he added. “You might not like the outcome, but you believe it will happen.”
What polls are you looking at? I’m so depressed as the polls I look at show Trump leading Harris in PA. Thomas Miller who is known to be accurate in his prediction of the outcome of elections..had Harris at 308 on 9/30 dropping her to 268 in 1 week. https://t.co/jNPvlf7ck7
— AW2B 🇺🇸 (@AW2B12) October 9, 2024
“This election is ‘the first time in history’ that there has been such a frequent transition between a tossup and a landslide”, the data scientist told Fortune Magazine . “The dynamic of this election is that after one candidate jumps way out in front, the race always works its way back to even,” he added. “That’s where it stands now. I follow this minute by minute, and the results keep toggling back and forth around the 270 electoral.”
“We’re an incredibly divided nation,” Miller told Fortune. “The most likely trend over the next 26 days to November 5 is that the forecast keeps going back to a tossup. The next month will be a crazy time.” But as November 5th approaches, Miller doesn’t think Trump will continue to lead in his forecasts. As per Newsweek , it is the first national poll that Trump has led since September 22, when Quinnipiac University’s survey gave him a 1-point advantage over Harris with 48 percent to 47 percent. Should the two candidates face off, the survey revealed a tie at 48% of the vote apiece.
538 Podcast Host @galendruke breaks down the latest polls ahead of the election. https://t.co/pqq8sh1owZ pic.twitter.com/4zSwtQxNsL
— ABC News Live (@ABCNewsLive) October 7, 2024
In battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Harris has a one-to-two-point advantage. In Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, Trump still has a slim lead.
According to FiveThirtyEight, they are tied in Pennsylvania. To win in November, the swing states voter count is essential. In places where there is a tie for the most electoral votes, Harris needs 44, while Trump needs 51.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump is DOMINATING in the polls! 🔥 His lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania with a 12-point edge, and he’s up 8.6% nationwide! 🇺🇸 This is the momentum we need—America is ready to bring back strong leadership! 💪 #Trump2024 #AmericaFirst … pic.twitter.com/tPzjH3C6AN
— Project Constitution (@DeleteLawzClips) October 8, 2024
FiveThirtyEight projects that Harris will win Pennsylvania although the two are tied there, along with Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to the polls aggregator, she will receive 277 electoral votes in total. However, the narrow margins in these crucial battleground states show that there is still fierce competition in the race. These slim leads might make this year’s presidential race the closest ever in years.