This Offbeat ‘Poll’ Has Predicted All but One Election for 40 Years, Here’s Who’s Winning

An offbeat tradition in Ohio has once again captured the political spotlight, and it involves something as sweet as cookies. For nearly 40 years, Cincinnati’s Busken Bakery has been running its quirky ‘cookie poll,’ where customers ‘vote’ for their preferred presidential candidate by purchasing cookies featuring the caricatures of the contenders. While the poll is far from scientific, it has successfully predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984, missing only once in 2020. This year, Donald Trump is leading Democrat Kamala Harris in the doughy competition, with his cookie sales surging ahead.

According to the latest tally from Busken Bakery, Trump-themed cookies are outselling Harris-themed cookies by a prominent margin. As of the last count, Trump bagged about 54% of the cookie vote with 2,953 cookies sold, while Harris trailed with 39% or 2,134 cookies. An independent ‘smiley face’ cookie accumulated 7%, representing a neutral option for undecided voters or those just looking for a snack. With Election Day still weeks away, the cookie poll remains open, allowing for more ‘votes’ to be cast, as reported by the New York Post.

Busken Bakery’s cookie poll isn’t just a whimsical twist on the electoral process; it has become something of a local phenomenon. Customers can ‘stuff the ballot box’ by purchasing as many cookies as they want, and each cookie purchase counts as a vote. The bakery’s CEO, Dan Busken explained, “We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box. Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east, and west portions of Cincinnati. So they’re pretty diverse. It’s definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and a city like Cincinnati, there’s been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.”

Ohio itself has long been considered a bellwether state, picking the winning presidential candidate in every election from 1964 until 2020. That year, Trump won Ohio but lost the national election, marking both the bakery’s and the state’s first incorrect prediction in decades. Busken further explained, “We hire a local artist [Jim White] that does caricatures, and he draws a caricature of each candidate. And then we transfer that image to a cookie. It’s meant to be fun,” as noted by Newsweek.

He noted, “Some people this year — especially more than any prior elections — have been more vocal and, not so friendly about things. But we’re moving forward. We’ve done it for 40 years. We think it’s fun. We sold a lot more in the first two weeks than we did in the last election. So I’d say cookie voter turnout has been up.” Interestingly, this year’s cookie poll aligns with other polling data from Ohio. As of Monday, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight had Trump leading Harris by roughly 8 to 12 points in the state, giving him an 87% chance of winning Ohio. However, on the national stage, Harris holds a slim lead, with polling averages suggesting a tight race in the Electoral College.