The U.S. Election is the Top Global Risk for 2024, Regardless of the Outcome: Report

In its annual report, political risk consultancy Eurasia Group has identified the U.S. presidential election as the foremost global risk in 2024, regardless of the election outcome. Amid the legal hurdles faced by Donald Trump, encompassing numerous felony charges linked to his actions during his presidency and endeavors to overturn the 2020 election, the electoral landscape is undergoing a dynamic transformation, presenting a complex and potentially volatile scenario. 

Against the backdrop of Trump's legal challenges, the electoral landscape predicts a volatile element in the political dynamics. The report sheds light on the impending importance of recognizing the challenges to tackle foundational issues erupting in the current electoral process.

“The US presidential election will worsen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining US credibility on the global stage. The US political system is remarkably divided, and its legitimacy and functionality have eroded accordingly. Public trust in core institutions — such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media — is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs,” the report read, as per HuffPost.

"In any stable, well-functioning democracy, the 2024 contest would be principally about those [issues]," the report stated. "The United States is presently far from that. On the other side of the aisle, President Joe Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term. The vast majority of Americans want neither to lead the nation. This division will worsen in the run-up to the election."

The Eurasia Group's forecast anticipates that in the event of a defeat, Trump, cognizant of the possible legal repercussions, will utilize his influential online presence, command over the Republican Party, and support from sympathetic media outlets to undermine the legitimacy of the legal proceedings against him and sow skepticism about the integrity of the election. It reads, "Knowing he faces prison time if he loses in November, Trump will use his online pulpit, control of the Republican Party, and friendly media to delegitimize both the system that is prosecuting him and the integrity of the election." 

The report continues, "His victim narrative and preemptive claims of fraud will find a receptive audience of Americans who agree, putting implicit pressure on Republican state governments and election officials to manage the election in ways that would benefit him (such as by purging voter rolls more liberally or tightening voting restrictions). While these efforts are unlikely to overturn the electoral process, they may well disrupt it." 

But that's not all, since it went on to say, "If Trump wins the election, Biden will concede... If Trump loses, he won't accept defeat. Instead, he will do everything in his power—legal or illegal—to contest the outcome and impugn the legitimacy of the process." Ranked second on the list of risks is the expansion and escalation of the war in the Middle East, followed by the Russia-Ukraine war in third place, and the fourth risk is the implications of ungoverned artificial intelligence.