The Exact Moment 'Polling Nostradamus’ Who Bet on Harris Realized He Was Wrong: "I Don't Get It..."

American political historian Allan Lichtman, widely recognized as the 'Nostradamus of US presidential elections' for his impressive record in predicting nine out of the last ten presidential outcomes, appeared stunned early Wednesday upon realizing his forecast for the 2024 presidential election was inaccurate. According to the New York Post, Lichtman had predicted a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris, only to witness former President Donald Trump secure a decisive win.

In a livestream shared with his son, Sam, Lichtman expressed disbelief as the numbers began favoring Trump. He repeatedly muttered, “I don’t get it,” while watching the electoral maps turn in Trump’s favor. At one point, a frustrated Lichtman remarked, “Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews."

The livestream, which lasted nearly six hours, captured both father and son’s reactions as media outlets projected wins for Trump in crucial states like Pennsylvania. “This is the first moment of the night where I’ve lost hope a little bit,” Sam stated after Pennsylvania’s results were announced. The elder Lichtman responded with visible frustration as well, commenting that the data presented 'nothing positive' for Harris.

As the night wore on, Lichtman became increasingly disheartened, vocalizing concerns about the future of American democracy. “Once democracy’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover,” he commented grimly, adding that reclaiming democratic values 'usually only happens when dictators lose wars.' Sam, meanwhile, expressed a less dramatic outlook, stating, “I hope Trump serves his term, and we never have to deal with him again.”

The unexpected election results left Lichtman contemplating the limits of his prediction model. "A lot of people believe the future of the country is on the line here, and the democracy of America could be a thing of the past," Lichtman said, adding, "I don’t think that’s an illegitimate fear." In the stream's closing moments, he admitted, “I’m so worried about the future of our election. Democracy is precious, but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.”

Lichtman, 77, is known for his 'Keys to the White House' prediction model. As Daily Mail reported, this is a system involving 13 factors including things such as incumbency, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success, which is designed to evaluate the electoral prospects of major candidates. This year, Lichtman’s analysis gave Harris an edge, believing she met eight of the 13 key criteria, while Trump fulfilled only three. However, as election results poured in, it became apparent that Trump was leading in all seven pivotal swing states.

He added that he would need to reassess his approach, acknowledging that his 'Keys' may have missed critical factors that influenced voters in 2024. This election marks only the second time Lichtman’s prediction model has failed, the first instance being in 2000 when he anticipated an Al Gore victory. Though Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost to George W. Bush in the electoral count.