Senior Official Says Trump Campaign Targets for GOP Nomination by Mid-March 2024
Former President Donald Trump's campaign team is aiming to secure the Republican presidential nomination by mid-March, according to a senior official. The ambitious estimate deviates significantly from past timelines, implying a speedy strengthening of support in early-voting states.
The Trump campaign's internal data revealed by Reuters on December 19, 2023, describes a strategy to gather 1,478 delegates by March 19, perhaps capturing the nomination well before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, set for July. This strategy contrasts with Trump's 2016 campaign, in which he did not win the nomination until late May.
Iowa, a critical battlefield, will begin the nomination process on January 15. The campaign anticipates winning 19 of the state's 40 eligible delegates. Furthermore, Trump's polling dominance, with 61% of self-identified Republicans supporting him, highlights his present lead over potential competitors such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
These estimates, however, are not without uncertainties. The Trump campaign concedes a lack of accurate polling data in some areas, leaving the potential for revisions to their projections. This early confidence could pave the way for a speedy settlement, with the campaign suggesting that the nomination could be wrapped up by March 12.
The Washington Post's December 19 report dives deeper into the Trump campaign's data analysis, emphasizing the importance of internal polling in conjunction with public polls. The expected delegate tally for the campaign, which is expected to reach 1,478 by March 19, reflects rule modifications made earlier in the year, such as distributing all of California's delegates to any candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote.
“A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed last week showed 61% of self-identified Republicans said they would vote for the former president in the primary.”
— Norman News Beast (@normannewsbeast) December 20, 2023
The campaign's strategy goes beyond polling statistics, with a seasoned staff of operatives focused on navigating the Republican National Convention in July. As indicated by their success in 2016, the team, which includes top advisers Brian Jack and Chris LaCivita, is well-versed in overcoming convention problems.
Despite the legal battles looming over Trump, the campaign seems unwavering in its pursuit of success. Trump's federal trial, which includes charges of attempting to tamper with the outcome of the 2020 election, is set to begin on March 4.
The idea of an early nomination might change the general election scenario as Trump's campaign examines polls versus President Biden. During an unexpected briefing at his golf club, the former president underscored that the campaign would not use a "prevent defense," implying an expansive battleground map beyond traditional swing states. "Still have to run it out," Trump said. Based on current polls, the campaign official predicted that Trump would receive 292 electoral votes to Biden's 246. A super PAC backing a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire also warned of Trump's electability, potentially undercutting the argument against his opponents.
