New Poll Reveals A Major Surprise for Kamala Harris — And It's Not Good News

For the first time since August, Donald Trump is now the favorite to win November's presidential election. The well-known polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight's most recent model is responsible for this unexpected change. The update, published on Friday, gives Trump a 51% chance of victory against Vice President Kamala Harris's 49%. After running 1,000 simulations of its election model, FiveThirtyEight found that Trump had 510 wins, Harris had 486, and there were four versions left with no clear winner.

Current polls indicate that it's a close race. FiveThirtyEight's analysis of recent polling data indicates that Harris' lead in the popular vote is only 2.1%. Besides, victory is not necessarily assured by winning the popular vote. For a clearer example, consider Hillary Clinton, who, while receiving more votes overall, still lost to Trump in 2016 because of the Electoral College system, as per Newsweek.

Now, the odds seem to turn to Trump's advantage, as, according to data aggregator RealClearPolitics, major bookmakers believe he has an average 58.5% chance of winning. Harris is trailing at 40.4%, and Trump is expected to win 271 Electoral College seats, which is just one more than the 270 required to win. Harris, with 267, follows closely but could fail to hit the mark. Compared to September 18, when Harris was predicted to win 300 Electoral College seats—well ahead of Trump's 238—this new poll represents a major shift.

What caused such a drastic change, though, some may ask? Well, many have pointed to the televised debate between Harris and Trump on September 10. While a CNN flash poll declared Harris the winner, Trump seems to have gained ground since then. "Trump and Harris have become polarizing figures," says Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth in the UK. "Both are now trying to appeal to voters that are disgruntled with their party's representatives. The undecided voters in swing states will be crucial to this election with it likely to be a victory of fine margins in those battleground states."

A recent NBC News poll of eligible voters also showed that Trump and Harris are tied: with 48% of the vote each. Again, this is a big change from September when Harris had a five-point lead. The poll reveals some interesting trends as well: for example, there’s a clear difference in support based on gender. Men are backing Trump by 16 points, while women are leaning toward Harris by 14 points. When it comes to independent voters, 40% support Trump and 44% for Harris. 

It also seems voters' choices are, to some extent, shaped by what they remember about past presidents. When asked about Trump's time in office, 44% of voters say his policies helped them, while 31% say they were hurt. In contrast, only 25% believe Joe Biden's policies have helped them, with 45% saying they've been hurt. "As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt. "The race is a dead heat." Republican pollster Bill McInturff also pointed out some challenges for Harris. "She is asking for another term from the incumbent party," he noted, suggesting voters might be looking for change.