'Most Accurate Pollster' Has Republicans Gaining Ground in Michigan Senate Race

Republicans received a glimmer of hope in the hotly contested Michigan Senate race after a new poll by The Trafalgar Group showed a tighter contest between Republican candidate, Mike Rogers, and his Democratic opponent, Elissa Slotkin. The survey—conducted by the 'most accurate pollster,' as hailed by RealClearPolitics, particularly for predicting Donald Trump’s 2016 victory—now has Rogers almost neck and neck with Slotkin.

This comes as a welcome surprise for the GOP since they have been struggling to gain momentum in key senate races nationwide. Rogers is trailing Slotkin in the race that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Democrats currently hold a slim majority with 51 seats, while Republicans control 49.

As Michigan remains a battleground state, this race is crucial for Republicans aiming to flip the Senate in their favor. However, it is important to note that a Republican hasn’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, so it is definitely going to prove to be an uphill battle for Rogers. Nonetheless, Kate DeTurk, his press secretary, stated, "Michigan voters know Mike has their back when it comes to fighting job-killing EV mandates, securing our border, and fixing our economy. On the other hand, Slotkin supports Chinese-backed companies that are destroying the auto industry and her failure to secure the border has made the state less safe," Newsweek reported.

Slotkin, a popular Democratic representative, has led in most polls, with a recent RealClearPolitics aggregate showing her 3.7 points ahead. But a Trafalgar Group poll, conducted between September 28 and September 30, showed Slotkin ahead of Rogers by only a thin margin of just 0.4%, with Rogers at 47% and Slotkin at 47.4%. 

Having said that, there is still some skepticism surrounding the poll results. While the pollster gained acclaim for their accuracy in 2016, there was also a prediction for a ‘red wave’ in the 2022 midterms, which failed to materialize. Moreover, as per The Guardian, across the country, GOP Senate challengers are struggling to match the polling numbers of Trump, who continues to dominate the Republican ticket in the presidential race. In battleground states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Arizona, Trump is polling ahead of Republican Senate candidates by significant margins. 

For example, in Ohio, Trump leads Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno by an average of 8.7 points, according to RealClearPolitics. This polling gap is causing concern among GOP leaders who had previously expressed confidence in their ability to secure a Senate majority.

Additionally, in Arizona, Trump is at 49.3% in comparison to Kari Lake’s 43.4%. In Nevada, Sam Brown is at 40.7% while Trump has 47.6%. Weeks ago, top Republicans were privately telling major donors that they expected to win at least 52 Senate seats. Meanwhile, for Democrats, it is not the same. Kamala Harris reportedly falls way behind Democratic Senate candidates in four of five battleground states