Latest Polls Show an Unexpected Rise in Donald Trump’s Chances for a Landslide Win

As the 2024 election nears, former President Donald Trump’s chances of securing a landslide victory, soars. Winning with a prominent margin would require him to secure at least 100 more electoral college votes than his opponent, Kamala Harris. Historically, this has happened only 7 times in the last 50 years. He would need to win all seven battleground states and flip a state that was previously Democratic, such as Minnesota, where he is within striking distance. 

Polls in key swing states are showing a close race. For instance, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin— the states that often determine the outcome—Trump has been making incremental gains. These states are vital, as Trump narrowly won them in 2016 and Joe Biden flipped them in 2020. According to FiveThirtyEight's polling tracker, Trump has gained momentum in these areas over the past week. Additionally, there is speculation about Trump flipping Minnesota, where polls show Harris leading by just 5.9 points. If Trump manages to win Minnesota and the seven battleground states, he could secure a substantial lead of 322 electoral college votes to Harris’ 216. Trump’s recent gains in polls suggest this outcome isn’t impossible, as reported by Newsweek.

Polling organizations like Fabrizio McLaughlin and ActiVote indicate that Trump now leads in several key battleground states. However, it is important to note that national polls, such as the NBC News poll, paint a different picture, showing a tightly contested race. As per NBC News, its latest poll, conducted between October 4 and 8, shows that Trump and Harris are in a dead heat, each receiving 48% support from registered voters. This reflects a prominent shift from Harris’ earlier lead, fueled by Republican voters returning to support Trump following a dip in polling after a rough debate performance. The poll also reveals other challenges for both candidates.

Democratic pollster, Jeff Horwitt, remarked, “As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Harris have stopped. The race is a dead heat.” Meanwhile, Trump benefits from voters’ positive assessments of his previous term. Horwitt highlighted, “The challenge for Kamala Harris [is] can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?”

He further added, “[Meanwhile] the challenge for Donald Trump [is] can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term, will not get in the way of governing and representing America? The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges.” One notable trend from the NBC poll is the widening gender gap, with women favoring Harris and men leaning toward Trump. Abortion remains a top talking point for many voters, and how each candidate addresses this could sway undecided voters in the final stretch.