If Trump Were Convicted in His Hush Money Criminal Trial, Here’s What He Could Face Next

In his hush money trial, which started jury deliberations earlier this week, Donald Trump has complained about the chilly and uncomfortable atmosphere in a Manhattan courtroom. Trump may be subject to circumstances that he would find even more humiliating if found guilty. “If you think the courtroom is dingy, just wait until you go to the probation office,” said Daniel Horwitz, a white-collar defense attorney and former prosecutor, The Washington Post reported.

Former prosecutors have outlined possible scenarios if Trump is found guilty of any of the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records relating to a $130,000 payment made by the Trump campaign to actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election to silence her about an alleged sexual relationship. According to legal experts, Trump, 77, who has no past criminal record, is unlikely to face jail, per Forbes.

The Class E felony accusations carry sentences ranging from 16 months to four years in jail. Among the important problems to be addressed is whether Trump would face jail, or a less restricted sentence such as probation. But given Trump's role as a former president and anticipated Republican candidate, if he's sentenced to prison or home confinement, extraordinary factors would also need to be addressed,  such as Secret Service security if he is imprisoned and his ability to go to campaign events. Alternatives like probation or house detention would pose logistical and political issues.

“If you have a probation officer, you are not supposed to travel without permission. Your home is subject to random search because you don’t have a Fourth Amendment right to your home being private. You can get drug-tested, potentially. Travel outside the country is difficult,” Matthew Galluzzo, a former prosecutor revealed to the outlet. “That would be super awkward for someone on the campaign trail, but not impossible.”

Constitution scholars say that a conviction would not bar Trump from seeking office or from holding office if he were elected. But, a conviction must be by a unanimous verdict in the trial. A division among jurors might lead Judge Merchan to declare a mistrial. Trump’s team would likely request Merchan to nullify the verdict if it posed a conviction, but experts believe this is improbable.

Instead, Trump would undergo an interview with a probation officer, resulting in a confidential presentencing report. Convicted individuals are expected to tell the truth during probation interviews. “If they are convicted and then say, ‘No, it’s a lie, it didn’t happen,’ that will go back to the judge. And that’s not good,” said defense attorney Jeremy Saland, a former Manhattan prosecutor.

Merchan could impose various penalties, from financial fines and community service to home confinement. Even under home confinement, Trump could still campaign, holding remote rallies and press conferences from Mar-a-Lago. “There’s a lot he can do as a candidate while under home confinement,” Horwitz noted.