Here's Why The Economist's 'World Ahead' Guide Called Donald Trump the "Biggest Global Threat" in 2024

What will become of the world if Donald Trump is re-elected as president in 2024? Multiple theories and opinions suggest his "potential second term" might be good or bad, or both. However, according to the recent edition of The Economist, The World Ahead 2024, the Republican front-runner is a looming global threat if re-established in the Oval Office. 

The open declaration begins by saying ever since the predictive guide was first published 38 years back, "no single person has ever eclipsed our analysis as much as Donald Trump eclipses 2024." The article further discusses what it would mean if the Republican candidate joined the White House again. 

According to the guide, "A second Trump term would be a watershed in a way the first was not. Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power." It continued, "His plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will have voted him in, while knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline."

"The election will be decided by tens of thousands of voters in just a handful of states," warning, "In 2024, the fate of the world will depend on their ballots." The article further alerts the former president would be "unbound in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism, and theatrically extravagant deals," per Mediaite. 

Based on what the guide predicts, his presidency would hint to China that American democracy is "dysfunctional," resulting in them invading Taiwan. It also highlights that since Trump is desperate to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it would give Putin momentum to conquer more neighboring countries. 

Unlike last year (2023), the predictive guide says, "That a Trump victory next November is a coin-toss probability is beginning to sink in." Previously, in 2016, a British research organization warned that his presidency could have a dangerous impact on the global economy, per NBC News. 

To prove their point, they released several significant factors like Trump's hostility toward free trade, his accusing China of being a "currency manipulator, his advocating the killing of terrorists' families, and his proposal to move troops into Syria to fight ISIS and take its oil. 

This was the first time an EIU forecast called a presidential candidate a global risk. "It's highly unusual, and I don't think we ever have done it where we've had a single politician be the center of our risk items," told Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU, per Politico. "One difficulty in assessing Trump's policy positions is that 'he does tend to shift his opinions like the weather.'" 

Now, less than a year before the up-and-coming 2024 elections, Trump is leading his Republican GOP rivals and President Joe Biden in several polls. In the recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the 77-year-old is winning in a hypothetical match, per The Hill. 

The poll was conducted among 1,584 adults Nov. 9-13 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Other polls, like Quinnipiac University's survey, also concluded with the same results.