Here’s What Happened When Democrats Switched Their Nominee Just Before the Election

Calls for President Joe Biden to resign and make way for a younger, more vibrant candidate to lead the Democratic Party as its 2024 presidential contender have increased following his disastrous debate performance. But a New York Times editorial cautions that with Election Day just 130 days away, such a step would unintentionally increase former President Donald Trump's chances of winning, per Raw Story.

Columnists Michelle Goldberg, Patrick Healy, Bret Stephens, and Jamelle Bouie discussed the implications of Biden's announcement of his resignation and the opening of the Democratic National Convention. While all three columnists agreed that Biden appeared inadequate and should be replaced, Bouie issued a warning, pointing out that historical precedent suggests that the Democrats could lose the White House if they forced Biden out.

Bouie used historical precedence to support his argument, pointing to the Democratic contender for president in 1972, George McGovern, who abruptly replaced vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton. McGovern's decision to withdraw Eagleton and select Sargent Shriver as his new running mate, after learning of Eagleton's previous electroshock therapy for clinical depression sparked claims of party disintegration, which Nixon seized on.

Even though McGovern declared that he supported his running mate "1000 percent," and a TIME magazine poll even found that 77% of respondents agreed that "Eagleton's medical record would not affect their vote," the running mate was abruptly removed in just 18 days after being added to the ticket. Nixon won the election in a historic landslide, earning 520 Electoral College votes to McGovern's 17. The outcome was disastrous, whatever the Democratic Party's motivations.

Republican narratives of Democratic instability will be strengthened by Biden's abrupt departure, just like the concerns that dogged McGovern's campaign. Bouie also pointed out that calls for Biden to resign as president would surface, which would further muddy the party's stance. If Biden withdrew, Bouie also discussed the role that Vice President Kamala Harris might play. Stephens emphasized Harris' poor approval ratings, but Bouie contended that her popularity suffered because of her affiliation with Biden. He claimed that Harris ought to have an equal opportunity to become the nominee, especially in light of the significance of Black votes to the Democratic base. Ignoring Harris may cause this important group to lash out.

If Biden resigned, the Democratic delegates would then have to choose a replacement. The DNC's delegate selection rules state in Rule 13, Section J that delegates to a presidential candidate must "in good conscience reflect the sentiment of those who elected them." This regulation creates the conditions for a fierce contest for the nomination that will feature prominent Democrats like Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and California Governor Gavin Newsom alongside Harris.

Finally, history indicates that it is dangerous to substitute a nominee at the last minute. These historical lessons are still very much in play as the Democratic Party plans its 2024 campaign strategy, serving as a warning against making rash choices that would endanger their prospects of winning the presidency.