Here’s What Americans Feel About Donald Trump’s Recent Conviction, According to Various Polls

Donald Trump is officially a convicted felon, but how this affects the 2024 presidential race remains to be seen. Soon after a New York jury convicted Trump guilty of 34 charges of falsifying company records, polling helped determine how voters may react. While it’s important to remember the several possible problems of early polling following a significant news event, here’s what those polls have revealed so far, per New York Magazine .

According to an ABC News /Ipsos survey, half of Americans (50%) think the verdict was right, and about as many (49%) think Trump should give up on his bid for president in 2024, which is in line with another poll conducted back in April 2023. However, there was disagreement about whether the allegations were politically motivated; 47% of respondents believed so. Further, 51% of people thought that Trump intentionally broke the law.

52% of independents and 65% of ‘double-haters,’ or people who have negative opinions of both Trump and President Joe Biden , believed the verdict was appropriate. Both groups showed significant support for Trump’s withdrawal from the race; 52% of independents and 67% of double-haters concurred.

CBS News ‘ findings indicated that the verdict did not have a major impact on public perception. Whereas 75% of Republicans say they have less faith in the legal system, the majority of Democrats say they have more faith in it. The majority of people still hold the same beliefs about Trump’s guilt as they did before the verdict. Importantly, individuals who were less educated about the trial remain mostly disengaged, allowing for potential adjustments in opinion.

A YouGov survey also revealed a clear partisan split: Only 15% of Republicans, but over 86% of Democrats, felt Trump was guilty. He is almost twice as likely to be believed to be guilty by independents. 50% agree with the conviction overall. Nevertheless, even if the majority of people think Trump has committed crimes, 63% believe he won’t likely go to jail. In terms of the conviction’s potential impact on the election, almost 80% of Americans say it hasn’t affected their opinions; 46% of them were already against Trump, and 32% were in favor of him. However, 5% of respondents say they now oppose Trump after his conviction, while 3% say they now support him.

According to a Morning Consult survey, 54% of voters were satisfied with the outcome. Notably, 49% of independent voters, 8% of Trump supporters, and 15% of Republican voters believe that Trump should withdraw from the race for president. Views on sentencing are divided; roughly half favor prison time, 49% favor probation, and 69% favor a fine.

Lastly, a Reuters/Ipsos survey suggests that following the conviction, 10% of registered Republicans and 4% of independent voters are less likely to support Trump. NBC News warned that while the data suggests stable beliefs, it also reflects pre-conviction sentiments. Whether these early polls translate into long-lasting political developments will become clear in the coming months.