'Nostradamus' of US Elections Has Finally Picked the Winner Between Harris and Trump

Political historian, Allan Lichtman, is well-known for making accurate predictions about US presidential elections. The professor at American University has an impressive record— he has correctly forecasted nine out of the last ten elections, spanning over four decades. This time the 'Nostradamus' of presidential elections believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win in November.

"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States," Lichtman declared in a video for The New York Times. He added, "At least, that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote." Lichtman's prediction model is called 'The Keys to the White House.' The approach uses 13 indicators to predict the likely winner. The considerations include the incumbent party's performance in the midterm elections and the state of the economy. The presence of societal dissatisfaction or scandals is an additional component.

According to Lichtman, eight of the 13 keys currently favor the Democrats, indicating a Harris victory. He explained, "Even if both foreign policy keys flipped 'false', that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House." The professor also reflected on the significance of President Joe Biden's decision to step aside following his poor debate performance against Trump in late June. "Democrats finally got a spine and got smart and united around Harris," Lichtman told Fox 5 Washington DC. "That avoided the loss of the party contest key. They already lost one key, the incumbency key...but to lose both...is a near-fatal combination."

Lichtman also noted Harris's positive impact on other key factors. He believes her candidacy contributed to the fizzling of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign and helped dampen major protests. The latest national polling supports Lichtman's claim, showing Harris with a four-point lead over Trump, 47% to 43%. However, the race remains tight in crucial battleground states, with the candidates tied in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.

Lichtman acknowledges the possibility of unexpected events as well. "Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call," he told reporters. "Does that mean it's impossible? I'm not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history." Lichtman's model, however, has received serious criticism. Two of his former students claim he was 'dishonest' when properly projecting the 2016 election outcome. They claimed that his algorithm is designed to forecast the popular vote winner rather than the Electoral College decision.

Nonetheless, Lichtman denied the allegations. He clarified it in a September 2016 Washington Post interview, "Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory." The historian's prediction method is notably different from typical polling analysis. Lichtman's system investigates broader political and economic patterns instead of depending on surveys and campaign strategies.