Here's a Deep Dive into Five Key Factors That Could Potentially Alter the Election Before November
Five Factors That Might Alter US-Election 2024
Anticipation around the upcoming Presidential elections is soaring day by day. With the current scenario of the state of affairs and the string of trials against ex-President Donald Trump, the election season is all set for the highly awaited polls. From student protests across the states to the stance on abortion rights of women, the issues and challenges have vehemently thronged the political scenario. Here's looking at some of the fluke predictions by Jared Gans of The Hill, that may or may not tremble the election before November.
1. The Age Factor and Health Concerns
On the day of the election, President Joe Biden will be 81 years old and former President Donald Trump will be 78 years old. In the history of US elections, the two assumptive nominees set to run for the position of President will be the oldest to date to stand for elections. Hence, the age factor and health concerns bear the ultimate anxiety in the citizens. While neither has a publicly diagnosed significant health condition, the potential for a major medical event remains a concern for both individuals.
2. If a Global Conflict Were to Breakout
The world is on the brink of colliding into conflict, as the third-world countries are facing the economic brunt of the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine crisis. The States' role has been deemed significant in the current global development of events despite no military involvement. Lately, the Taliban was not designated as a terrorist organization by the United States back in 2022. The scenario described suggests that if certain events were to escalate such as a potential Russian attack on a NATO country or increased Iranian involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict it might lead to a situation where direct military intervention is seen as necessary, that carries the potential to divert the political mandate of the US.
3. The Rise of RFK Junior
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a threat to both the major parties, Democrats and Republicans alike with his independent candidature for the upcoming polls. Trump has called the independent candidate, a "Democratic plant" and "not a serious candidate." Besides Kennedy, Cornel West is running as an independent candidate, and there's a likelihood that Jill Stein will be nominated as the Green Party candidate once again. However, both candidates are currently polling at no more than 1 or 2 percent in support.
4. In Case of an Economic Downturn or Recession
The economy stands predominant in shaping the verdict of the masses. Despite unemployment consistently remaining at historically low levels, below 4 percent, polls indicate widespread pessimism among Americans. This sentiment is exacerbated by persistent inflation, which, though decreased significantly over the past year, still exceeds the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent, per Ipsos. If there were to be an economic recession, President Joe Biden would face significantly greater challenges in persuading Americans to support his economic agenda. The recent introduction of Bidenomics barely sought the support of the diverse population.
5. If Trump Gets Acquited in New York Case
Trump's trial concerning alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels has been underway for several weeks and might conclude before the summer begins. This trial could be the only one among the four cases Trump is confronting that reaches a verdict before Election Day. Polling results have been varied regarding the potential impact of a conviction in this case on Trump's standing. A survey revealed that 57 percent of respondents view the hush money charges as significant, and an equal percentage believe Trump should not hold the presidency if convicted of a serious offense.
