GOP Pollster Predicts a Historic Election Outcome That Hasn't Happened in 36 Years
As the tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris ensues, GOP pollster Mitchell Brown has predicted a rare outcome that hasn't happened in 36 years— neither candidate would win the three crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan. This hasn't happened since the election of 1988. Brown's assertions came during his interview with Stuart Varney of Fox Business.
On Varney & Co., Varney asked Brown if the current trends were leaning in Trump’s favor. Brown answered in affirmative, adding, "The trend line is great. I'm no longer worried anywhere in the South-North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada— good to go." Subsequently, they discussed the battleground states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—often called the 'Blue Wall.' As reported by Newsweek, Brown noted, "If you look in 2016, Trump won all three of those states, obviously Biden won all three of those swing states...in 2020." It has long been observed that the winner of these three states wins the presidency.
However, this time around, Brown argued, "...neither candidate would win all three of those," which would mean Trump 'just taking one' would win the election. He added, "I still believe that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two most likely to fall for Trump, but if turnout is maximized and we see a repeat. It would be all three for Trump and zero for Kamala." Trump and Harris are vying for Pennsylvania's vital 19 Electoral College votes, which could change the outcome of the race.
Most polls in Pennsylvania reveal a razor-thin gap between the Republican and Democratic contenders. Even in Wisconsin, the race is neck and neck, with The Hill’s aggregate showing Trump edging out Harris by just 0.4 percent. Trump stands at 48.5 percent while Harris is at 48.1 percent. Michigan also presents a similar situation, with Trump leading by a mere 0.1 percent, according to The Hill's polling data. However, Harris leads slightly in the national polls, but new data indicates that the gap is rapidly narrowing. Political analysts and strategists have started making predictions about how this close race will play out as the election draws near.
Renowned political analyst, Nate Silver, argued that three crucial factors could shift the votes in favor of Trump in the presidential election— economic pressure, immigration concerns, and Harris' ties to current administration policies. Additionally, given the incredibly tight polls in key battlegrounds, Silver's estimate emphasizes Trumo's lead in the Electoral College. As reported by Newsweek, his model claims that Trump also has an advantage in seven swing states. This prediction matches with several other projections like RealClearPolitics, which also predicts that the GOP nominee will win these crucial states by an average of 0.2 percentage points.
