From Biden’s Replacement to Trump’s Chances: 6 Takeaways From Post-Debate Polls

Here’s What Polls Indicate After Biden’s Disastrous Performance and Trump’s Vociferous Lies

Joe Biden did so poorly in the first 2024 presidential debate against Donald Trump that it sparked a heated discussion about whether Democrats should replace him on the ticket. On the other hand, Trump's 2025 goals and false claims have infuriated moderate Republicans and Independents. Although commentators and political strategists have responded sharply to the war of words; how it will affect voters remains yet to be seen, as per NY Intelligencer. For now, here's what the initial surveys, completed post the debate, reveal.

1. Spike in Concerns Over Biden’s Mental Acuity

The CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,130 registered voters, conducted on June 28 and 29, suggests 72% of participants believe Biden lacks the mental and cognitive capacity to be president, which is an increase from 65% on June 9. Among them, 42% are registered Democrats, which is an increase from 29%. According to the survey, 45% of registered Democrats believe Biden should now resign, and 46% believe he shouldn't be running for president. This represents a 10-point increase from February. However, interestingly, the poll suggests Democrats are worried more about his ability to campaign rather than his decision-making as president.

2. Biden Lost the Debate, But Trump Didn't Gain Any Ground Either

Before and after the debate, 538 and Ipsos conducted a poll among potential voters using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel. According to the survey, Biden lost the debate, but Trump also didn't gain much ground. Not many voters appear to have changed their minds after the clash. Nevertheless, Biden did lose a small portion of the electorate— 46.7% of likely voters indicated they would consider supporting him, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the pre-debate survey. In contrast, Trump's support showed very little movement, which may be an indication that although people weren't very pleased with Biden's performance on Thursday night, they weren't delighted with Trump's either.

3. Slight Majority of Democrats Still Think Biden Should Stay on the Course

3,300 individuals, including 2,315 likely voters, were questioned for the nationwide post-debate poll, which was conducted and released on Friday. Only 29% of people believe Biden is qualified for the position; 57% disagree. Just 64% of Biden's supporters believe he is qualified for the position. 14% disagree and 22% are unsure. However, more than 55% of potential Democratic voters believe Biden should run for a second term in office, while 34% believe he should withdraw to make room for another Democrat. 57% of potential Democratic voters believe that if Biden does not withdraw, the Democratic Party should nominate him to compete in the August DNC. But 33% disagree, wishing for another Democrat to replace the incumbent.

4. Question of Biden’s Replacements

After the debate, Biden’s age became an even hotter topic among likely voters, but the Data for Progress poll finds that “there is not yet clear evidence that an alternative nominee would significantly outperform him against Trump in a head-to-head matchup.” As for alternatives, the poll found that “Trump holds a +14-point advantage over Biden on ‘fit to run the country,’ while that advantage shrinks to just 3 points when compared to Kamala Harris.” Three out of ten Democratic voters, according to a Morning Consult survey, believe Harris should lead if Biden is not selected as the party's nominee. Another 20% believe California Governor, Gavin Newsom, should lead the charge. In the Survey USA poll, 43% of likely Democratic voters favor Harris as Biden's replacement, with strong support from 63% of Black Democrats. 

5. One Poll Shows Trump Behind Biden 

After their debate, Biden was ahead of Trump in at least one survey. A Morning Consult study put Biden one percentage point ahead of the presumed GOP presidential nominee, despite several post-debate surveys showing an increase in support for him. Biden was at 45 % and Trump was at 44 % on Friday. The margin of error for the nearly 2,000 respondents in the post-debate survey was +/- 2 percentage points. Following Trump's guilty conviction in his hush-money case, Biden also enjoyed a similar advantage in May.

6. Dip in Crucial Constituents for Biden

Large samples of voters who support two parties, as well as Blacks, Hispanics, White single women, Gen Z, and millennials, were assessed by Democracy Corps on June 27 on current issues like abortion, Trump’s conviction, and Biden's foreign policy. In a two-way vote, these Democratic voters—all of whom lean heavily toward Biden—give him 65% of the vote. However, just half of them are fond of Biden or Harris. White single women interestingly are against the thought of another Trump term and strongly support Biden.