Famed Pollster Nate Silver Reveals His 'Gut' Prediction — It's Not Good News For Kamala Harris
Nate Silver, the well-known pollster and political analyst, has shared his 'gut' feeling that Republican candidate Donald Trump could reclaim the White House on November 5. Silver, who has accurately predicted most U.S. elections for several years and was one of the few to foresee Trump’s 2016 victory, surprised many with this prediction. Just last month, he publicly announced that he would support Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Now, his forecast comes at a time when Democrats are increasingly anxious that Harris' campaign might be losing ground.
Silver pointed out that in key battleground states, Trump and Harris are running almost evenly, but these close figures don’t seem to reassure many observers, who frequently press him for a clear, definitive prediction. As reported by the New York Times, he wrote, "So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats." However, he also stated, “But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine... You should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
The political analyst noted that part of his intuition came from the concept of nonresponse bias and speculated that pollsters might not be reaching enough of Trump's supporters. He emphasized that a large number of Trump fans were less inclined to participate in media polls because they have lower levels of social trust and civic engagement.
💯. We may be at the point where if Harris wins, you'll get a narrative about how the polls were wrong again. But the polls show a really close race! The vibes have shifted disproportionately vs polls. https://t.co/RLpDPoMbPw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2024
However, Silver didn't drain Democrats of their optimism entirely as he said Harris might win a significant victory if she can beat the polls by three or four points. It would possibly be the biggest margin in the Electoral College and popular vote since Barack Obama's historic victory in 2008.
The pollster later drew attention to some concerning data for Harris, noting that three recent, high-quality national polls now show Trump in the lead—a troubling development for Harris, especially given the Democrats’ inherent disadvantage in the Electoral College. Silver also brought up a recent Fox News poll that showed Trump leading with 50% of the vote compared to Harris' 48%, which was a change from the previous month when Harris had a slight lead. Silver then went on to examine the TIPP tracking poll, which showed Trump ahead of Harris by two points, 49% to 47%.
In contrast, James Carville, a well-known pollster, and Allan Lichtman, also known as the 'Nostradamus' of political predictions, have both predicted a win for Harris. Carville supported a Democratic win despite Trump's upper hand in recent polls, citing a few significant factors. One of them was the GOP's history of defeats since 2018; it included Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election and two midterm election defeats. Carville believes that Trump hasn't gathered a powerful enough coalition to win this time, as reported by the Daily Mail.
