Donald Trump became the 45th U.S. president less than one year ago, but the focus for many political experts is already on 2020. The 2018 midterm elections are not expected to bring sweeping changes to Washington, and Republicans will probably retain control of the U.S. Senate.
Many factors have contributed to making 2020 an extraordinary moment in American politics. Mr. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and has seen his poll numbers go down at an alarming rate since taking office in January.
In most recent surveys, the former reality television star sits at around 35 percent support for the work that he is doing. The bad numbers should be coupled with the fact that Trump tends to do things that are not very popular.
For example, Friday, in the middle of Hurricane Harvey, he decided to pardon former Maricopa County, Ariz., Sheriff Joe Arpaio, one of his biggest supporters. Arpaio’s pardon was slammed by people in Trump’s party because it showed a lack of respect for the rule of law.
Last week, he blamed both sides for the tragic events that took place in Charlottesville, Va. All of those moves have turned Trump into a weak candidate for 2020.
The conventional wisdom has him struggling to win a second term. However, since Trump broke all the old rules of politics, the predictions should be taken with a dose of skepticism.
Ex-LA mayor: I expect Kamala Harris will run for president in 2020 https://t.co/gbmNAKEc1X pic.twitter.com/3w36NBCura
— The Hill (@thehill) August 20, 2017
The Democratic Party is in terrible shape and does not have a political star like Barack Obama who can appeal to people in the middle. Moreover, it will take some time before the left’s economic message can reach voters in the Rust Belt.
Those elements keep Trump in play for 2020, but his critics are looking at other options. A serious primary challenge is starting to be discussed by those who believe that Trump has taken the American democracy in the wrong direction.
Names like John Kasich, Jeff Flake, and Ben Sasse have been floated , but they do not have the same level of recognition as Trump. A popular outsider like Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is now seen as a real possibility.
The former wrestler is a true success story and has crossover appeal, something that is rare at the moment. His celebrity status could outshine the president.
Johnson has said that he is open to the idea of running for president but has not indicated if a primary challenge is something he is willing to entertain. Most observers agree that a charismatic actor, (with many followers on social media), who has always talked about the value of hard work, could represent a threat to a vulnerable incumbent.
[Featured Image by Alex Wong/Getty Images]