According to a Des Moines Register /Mediacom Iowa poll released on Saturday, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is trailing Democrat Theresa Greenfield by three percentage points.
Forty-six percent of respondents said that they would vote for Greenfield if the election were held today, while 43 percent said they would support Ernst.
Both candidates enjoy strong support from members of their respective parties. Ninety percent of Republicans said they will vote for Ernst in November, and 95 percent of Democrats said they will support Greenfield.
Greenfield has an edge among Independents, 42 percent of whom said they would back her, while 38 percent said they’d support Ernst if the election were held today.
Ernst seems to be popular with the population that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
The survey showed that the senator enjoys the support of 67 percent of evangelicals, 56 percent of voters living in rural parts of Iowa, 59 percent of men without a college degree, and 53 percent of men overall.
The poll — which was conducted by Selzer & Co. — also showed that Ernst is not as popular among her constituents as she used to be.
In January 2019, 56 percent of Iowans held a favorable view of their senator, while 29 percent disagreed. Forty percent of Iowans now have an unfavorable view of Ernst.
Greenfield came in stronger among voters who do not have a religious affiliation, 55 percent of whom said they would vote for her if the election were held today.
The Democrat is popular among women, 54 percent of whom chose her over Ernst. She also bested Ernst among voters younger than 35 as well as among voters older than 65.
As J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., pointed out, this is the first survey in which Ernst trails her opponent.
“This is definitely a competitive race. Symbolically, that’s certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield’s lead is not commanding,” Selzer said.
For the Democratic Party, unseating Ernst would be a major step toward winning control of the United States Senate.
According to Nate Silver, the founder of Five Thirty Eight , the poll could be a bad sign for the Republican Party. Per Raw Story , Silver tweeted that “this feels like a little bit of a canary in the coal mine.”
“If this race is competitive, the GOP is in a lot of trouble in a lot of places,” he wrote.
Republicans seem to have lost ground in other key states. In Texas , GOP operatives are worried that their state could turn blue in November.