Historian with 9 Accurate Election Calls Predicts a Major ‘October Surprise’ in the Trump-Harris Race

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of the 9 presidential elections out of 10 since 1984. The ‘ Nostradamus of polling ‘ has claimed that the month of October will bring along a major shift, but that will not change his prediction. Speaking to CNN ’s Michael Smerconish, Lichtman emphasized how an ‘October surprise’ — referring to surprising or scandalous news that comes to the fore just before the November elections — could possibly impact the US presidential elections.

“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign,” he said. A case in point, Lichtman’s argument — that an ‘October surprise’ doesn’t harm candidates — was true when former President Donald Trump ‘s infamous Access Hollywood tapes (about his conduct towards women) leaked just before the election month, all without affecting Trump’s electoral win.

According to the Independent , the method Lichtman used to predict the elections was devised by Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. ‘The Keys to the White House’ is a system that inspects the situation regarding the state and the incumbent political party in the election year. There are thirteen factors, according to the historian, which lead him to the big conclusion about the future of the United States of America. In the list, the President’s party’s footing in the House of Representatives, the domestic economy, record of scandals, socio-political unrest, comparative personality checks of the competing leaders, and foreign policy, among others, are checked with a true and false lens.

In a video shared by the New York Times , the professor described his method by sharing that Vice President Kamala Harris ‘ checkbox had ‘eight trues,’ which suggested that she could be the next President of the United States of America. To get the nod from Lichtman, one needs at least six true answers.

Describing his reservations about the foreign policy question, Lichtman said, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.” He added, “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”

The 2024 race looks deadlocked at the moment with the Trump-Vance campaign raging against the Harris-Walz campaign. With Trump’s controversial hush money trial and several other legal battles, it has been a long tiring year for the Republican nominee. According to BBC , David Greenberg, a presidential historian at Rutgers University, claimed, “In any super close race, where the electorate is divided down the middle, a difference of a percentage point or two could be decisive.” Looking at the current scenario it is too soon to say anything.