Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a close race for the upcoming 2024 election , which will probably depend on the final number of votes, especially from the key swing states. James Carville, a Democratic strategist, recently predicted that he thinks Harris will win in November. He expressed similar views just last month, suggesting that it doesn’t seem like a race she will lose. Carville reiterated his predictions during a conversation with MSNBC’s Ari Melber, while they discussed potential scenarios if Trump secures a win.
As reported by HuffPost , speaking of his prediction, Carville said, “I think that Harris is going to win. Let me just say that out front. I’m doubling down on that. I could be wrong.” Last month, Carville, a former Bill Clinton advisor, spoke about the dynamics of presidential elections . He noted that several elections in recent history have stayed close right up until the very end. According to The Hill , his experience has led him to assume that the 2024 race will be similar, with polls indicating close margins until one candidate wins. However, he doubts whether this will be the case even on election day.
In their recent discussion, Melber and Carville also spoke about the recurring cycle of Trump making controversial remarks, only to have prominent Republicans downplay them, followed by Trump doubling down and asserting that he truly meant what he said. The Democratic strategist said, “If he [Trump] wins, he’s going to say, ‘I told people I was going to do this; I have the legitimacy of an election behind me.’ And you know what, he will have a point.” Meanwhile, Carville isn’t the only one who has predicted Harris’s win in November. Just last week, a prominent American historian and political scientist, Allan Lichtman, predicted that the country will soon get its first woman President.
Breaking: James Carville warns the media that if Trump wins, he’ll “arrest all of you.” Trump claims our enemy is from within, and he’s right. His rise poses a serious threat to both democracy and the Constitution, undermining our core values. He is indeed our enemy from within. pic.twitter.com/qMbCWK7hZm
— TeaPotUSA (@TeaPotUSA) October 22, 2024
According to The Atlantic , Lichtman has a stellar record of accurately forecasting U.S. presidential elections over the years. He developed a forecasting model known as the Keys to the White House . Since 1984, it has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election. According to Lichtman, the sitting party is likely to lose if six or more of the thirteen keys in this model are against them; if less than six are against them, victory is anticipated. He is also a professor at the American University.
During an interview, he said, “The keys predict we’re going to have a new pathbreaking president, our first woman president , and the first president of mixed Asian and African descent, kind of foreshadowing where America is going. We’re rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me are on the decline.” Discussing the advantages for Democrats, Lichtman noted that there hasn’t been a recession in the election year, third-party efforts have lost momentum, and Republicans have failed to create a scandal to tarnish the Democrats’ reputation.