7 Battleground States That Will Influence the 2024 Presidential Rematch Between Biden and Trump

These States Can Decide Who Wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Earlier last month, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump achieved a significant milestone—they each secured enough delegates to be the presumed nominees of their respective parties, setting up an anticipated rematch. As happens every election year, some swing states will definitely impact the 2024 presidential election. Seven contested states are listed as toss-ups on the map by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill. These important states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Except for North Carolina, Biden won six of the seven in 2020, helping him defeat Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College. However, in 2024, according to current surveys, Trump is ahead in all the seven swing states. So, let's take a closer look.

1. Arizona

In 2020, Arizona was ranked second in the US for the closest race after Georgia. Biden won by almost 0.3%. If the results of the current polls are any indication, the incumbent President will find it difficult to top that achievement this year. Last month, an Emerson College survey conducted for The Hill and Nexstar gave Trump a 3-point advantage in a head-to-head comparison. In this fierce battle, there are two things to take into account. First, the Census Bureau reports that 33% of Arizona's population is Latino, which is higher than in any other battleground state. According to supporters of the former President, he is making significant progress with this group across the country. However, among Latino voters in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 28 points. 

2. Georgia

Four years ago, Biden was the first Democrat to win in Georgia. Biden prevailed in the state by a mere 0.25% margin in 2020. This week's CBS News/YouGov survey gave Trump a 3-point advantage in a head-to-head comparison. However, one-third of Georgians are Black, a figure that is much larger than in any other battleground state and one that Biden performed exceptionally well in 2020. But there's a certain amount of gloom in Democratic circles over Georgia, with some strategists claiming that North Carolina offers Biden a more enticing target this time. Hence, the state could be a very challenging battleground in November.

3. Michigan

In 2020, Biden easily defeated Trump in Michigan, winning the state by over three percentage points. It is one of the most closely divided battleground states, according to recent polls. With only himself and Biden on the ticket, Trump was winning by two points, according to a February Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar survey. Later, Trump's lead increased to four points. Given that more than 200,000 Arab Americans are living in Michigan, the primary result of more than 100,000 voters casting 'uncommitted' votes was a serious red flag for Biden, according to Reuters. As such, he is going to have a lot of problems in this situation if the conflict in Gaza continues until November, as the said demographic is unhappy with his handling of the conflict.

4. Nevada

After George W. Bush in 2004, no Republican running for the White House has won in the Silver State. However, Trump has a shot. According to a Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey conducted last month, the former President is leading by either six or seven points. But, since 30% of Nevadans identify as Latino, winning among that group is crucial for the real estate mogul. According to the Census Bureau, Nevada has the lowest percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or above of any of the seven battleground states (27%). For Trump, who is noticeably more popular among voters without a college degree, this may be good news.

5. North Carolina

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by around one point. However, the population of the state's largest cities, particularly Charlotte and Raleigh, has increased due to immigration from northern states that tilt more Democratic. Due to their representation of 22% of the electorate, Black voters will also be crucial in this election. Additionally, the gubernatorial race could impact what goes down in this state; Attorney General Josh Stein recently won the Democratic nomination to run for Gov. Roy Cooper's seat. However, Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, his opponent, is also considered to be extremely polarizing, according to AP News. Robinson's past includes several divisive statements about the Holocaust, calling homosexuality 'filth' and asserting that it is God's will for Christians to be 'led by men.' Progressive suburbanites may turn out to obstruct Robinson and improve Biden's prospects in the process.

6. Wisconsin

In 2020, Biden's closest Midwest victory was in Wisconsin, when he won by a split hair, only 0.5%. With only 7% of the population being African-American and 8% being Latino, it has the lowest percentage of non-white votes of any battleground. Trump leads by three or four points in the most recent Hill/Nexstar survey, but Democrats have had a somewhat solid history in the state. In 2022, Democratic governor Tony Evers was re-elected, and in November, Sen. Tammy Baldwin will be running for a third term. Nevertheless, one should not undervalue Trump. In 2016, he defeated Clinton in Wisconsin, becoming the first Republican nominee for president to win the state since 1984.

7. Pennsylvania

Of the seven battlegrounds, Pennsylvania could be the most important—thanks to its 19 electoral college votes. The most recent Emerson survey conducted for The Hill and Nexstar has Trump leading by 4 points. One of the three Democratic 'blue wall' states that Trump destroyed in his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton was Pennsylvania. He was the first Republican presidential contender to win the state since 1988. Four years ago, Biden won the Keystone State by around one point. Pennsylvania has a somewhat higher percentage of its inhabitants that are 65 years of age or older than any other battlefield. Additionally, 75% of the state's population is white, which should prove advantageous for Trump. But because it's close to Delaware, his home state, Pennsylvania also has a close affinity with Biden.