Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump By Eight Points In New Poll
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by eight points in the latest Morning Consult poll, The Hill reported. The results show that neither man’s needle moved much in either direction following their respective parties’ conventions.
Traditionally, presidential candidates get a polling “bump” after their party’s convention. However, this poll, conducted August 28-30 among 12,966 likely voters, revealed almost exactly the same numbers that the same polling agency found when it polled voters before either party held its convention.
Specifically, the latest numbers show Biden leading Trump by eight points, with 51 percent of likely voters supporting the Democratic Party nominee, while 43 percent said they were for the incumbent.
By comparison, in the 2016 election, Trump moved his own needle one point after the Republican convention, from 39 to 40 percent, while Hillary Clinton moved hers two points following the Democratic convention, from 41 to 43 percent. On balance, Clinton’s lead over Trump increased from two points to three points once the dust had settled on both conventions.
Of course, the narrow lead in polls enjoyed by the former secretary of state failed to translate into a victory in November. However, a key major difference between late-August polling in 2016 and 2020 lies in undecided voters. At this same time in 2016, 17 percent of poll respondents said they were either undecided or were supporting another candidate other than the two major ones. The latest poll, however, shows that only 6 percent of respondents are either undecided or supporting an outlier candidate.
Biden did manage to increase his support in favorability among voters. Specifically, 51 percent of poll respondents said they have a favorable opinion of the former vice president, up three points from a month ago. Still, 46 percent viewed him unfavorably. By comparison, the respondents’ view of Trump skewed to the negative, 55 to 43 percent.
Looking at the poll results more closely by demographic group, Biden has a wider lead among two specific groups than he does at-large — women and suburban voters. Biden leads by 12 points among women — 53 percent to Trump’s 41 — and leads by 11 points among suburban voters– 52 to 41 percent.
The poll also looked at how the votes might shake out in key battleground states. In only one state did the poll numbers change significantly, appearing to have flipped entirely since the conventions. Arizona, a state that traditionally votes for the conservative candidate and has 11 electoral votes, supported Trump 47 percent to 45 percent before the conventions. However, this recent poll shows the state now favors Biden, showing a 52 to 42 split.
