Many Republicans Believe Donald Trump Will Win The Election Due To Hidden Voters, Report Says
A Sunday report from The New York Times spotlighted a purportedly widespread belief among Republicans that Donald Trump will win in November due to “shy” supporters of the president that are not being registered in recent polling that shows Joe Biden in the lead.
“I’m not buying it,” one supporter said. “There are a lot of silent voters, and more will come out before the election. I think a lot of states are turning red from blue, but you don’t hear about that in the media.”
The report pointed to Trump’s victory in 2016, which was only predicted by a minority of pollsters. Notably, Trafalgar Group, showed the president leading in Michigan, Florida, and Georgia one day before the 2016 election. The prevailing narrative was that Clinton was on track to win. According to The New York Times, many Trump supporters believe that a similar upset is coming in November.
Nevertheless, the publication pushed back on the theory of silent Trump supporters and claimed that the latest public opinion research suggests it’s not feasible.
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, acknowledged that there are people in environments that make it impossible to reveal their support for the incumbent.
“But I’m still not convinced that not telling your business associate or the people in your Rotary Club or the people in your country club is the same thing as not telling a pollster.”
According to The New York Times, some evidence suggests that a small amount of Trump support is being undercounted, which could come into play in competitive states where this difference determines the direction of the outcome.
“We assume the race will tighten, and as that happens, the size of the shy Trump vote could very easily come into play,” said Neil Newhouse, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies.
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, noted that another warning sign for Trump hopefuls is the low backing for third-party candidate Jo Jorgensen, who is registering significantly lower support than her predecessor, Gary Johnson.
As The Inquisitr reported, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten previously argued that the recent polling data suggests that the theory of shy Trump voters is likely a myth. However, he stopped short of writing off the possibility that Trump outperforms expectations in November and pulls off a win.
Conversely, a recent Democracy Institute study showed the president leading Biden nationally and claimed that the hidden Trump voter demographic has increased by 5 percent since the last iteration of the survey.
