Monmouth University Poll: Joe Biden Opens Up 13-Point Lead Over Donald Trump In Pennsylvania
According to a poll from Monmouth University released on Wednesday, Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden has opened up a 13-point lead over President Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania.
Fifty-three percent of registered voters said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 40 percent said they would back Trump. Four percent said they were undecided and 3 percent said they would vote for another candidate.
Only 1 percent of Democrats said they would not vote for Biden, while 12 percent of Republicans said they would not cast their ballot for Trump.
The former vice president enjoyed the support of 54 percent of independent voters, while 33 percent of them expressed support for Trump.
Among voters under 50, Biden came in with a 31-point advantage. Among voters age 65 and older, Trump trailed Biden by 10 percentage points.
However, 56 percent of those between 50 and 64 years old said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 43 percent of them said they would vote for Biden.
Biden dominated among non-white voters, as well as among white college graduates. Trump had an edge among white voters without a college degree.
Notably, Biden came in ahead of Trump in key swing counties. Across these counties, Biden, who was born in Pennsylvania, polled at 54 percent, leaving Trump behind at 35 percent.
Biden’s lead narrowed when different voting models were applied. Among likely voters, the former vice president had a seven to 10-point advantage and finished ahead of Trump in swing counties.
When a model based on a somewhat higher turnout level than four years ago was used, Biden had a 10-point advantage over Trump across the state, and a 17-point advantage in swing counties. In a lower turnout model, he had a seven-point lead across the state, and a 13-point advantage in swing counties.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained.
“The good news for Biden is that he hits the magic 50 percent mark in all the turnout models and far fewer voters are considering a third party candidate than four years ago. This suggests somewhat more stability in the numbers, but there are also signs that Biden has not pulled clearly ahead of Trump on some key metrics,” he added.
Other recent polling suggests that Biden has increased his overall lead over Trump. According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, the Democrat is polling 15 percentage points ahead of the commander-in-chief nationwide.
