Joe Biden Leads Donald Trump In New National Poll, But Majority Expect Him To Lose

A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by six points. Nationwide, Biden is polling at 48 percent and Trump is at 42 percent. There appears to be a bit of fluidity in the race, with 10 percent of voters saying they are still undecided. Among those voters, 56 percent support Biden and 44 percent support Trump.

Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of the job Trump has been doing, and 41 percent approve. Since March, Trump’s ratings have swung in both directions, but the approval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic has dropped significantly. Thirty-nine percent of Americans now approve of the way Trump has handled the crisis, 10 percent less than in March.

Biden is not particularly popular, either. The Democratic Party’s presidential nominee is viewed favorably by 40 percent of the electorate. In comparison, former President Barack Obama’s favorability rating is 56 percent. According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling, this suggests that Biden could use some help from the former president.

“While Trump is struggling to handle the coronavirus epidemic, it appears Biden has his own image issues with voters and may need help from former President Obama on the campaign trail to try and transfer the positive image voters have of Obama to Biden.”

According to the poll, Biden faces two other issues. His candidacy has failed to generate enthusiasm, and a majority of voters believe Trump will win the 2020 presidential election.

Forty-five percent of Biden supporters said they were very or extremely excited about voting for him in November. In addition, 65 percent of those who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primaries say they are not excited about voting for the former vice president.

In comparison, 64 percent of Trump supporters are very or extremely excited to vote for him.

Regardless of whom they support, voters aren’t convinced that Biden has what it takes to take the White House; 57 percent think Trump will win the election.

The survey suggests that voters are giving third parties a strong look. Thirty-five percent say they would consider voting for an independent or third-party candidate. Furthermore, even though Sanders has endorsed Biden, 51 percent of his supporters say they are open to voting third-party.

Trump has his own set of issues to deal with. The economy, which has taken a major blow from COVID-19, is the most important issue for 36 percent of voters. As Kimball explained, Trump will have a difficult time replicating his 2016 campaign message, given that voters do not seem to think immigration is a major issue.

According to Kimball, “in 2016, immigration policy was a signature message of the Trump campaign, but starting in the fall with the impeachment trial the President’s immigration message has faded significantly, and given where we are today, it will be a challenge to make it a focal point in the upcoming election.”