Emerson College Releases Final Iowa Poll

The final Emerson College/7 News Iowa poll has been released. The survey appears to be good news for Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, but the field still seems very fluid.

According to the poll, Sanders has a commanding lead, having secured the support of 28 percent of the Iowa electorate. Former Vice President Joe Biden — who recently predicted a “neck and neck” race with Sanders — is in second place, polling at 21 percent. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in third at 15 percent.

Warren, who was considered one of the front-runners not too long ago, is in the non-viable territory, polling at 14 percent. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is in fifth place at 11 percent. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang, billionaire Tom Steyer, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet are all in single digits.

Sanders’ greatest strength, as many other polls have also suggested, is the support he enjoys among young voters. Forty-five percent of Iowans ages 18-49 support the Vermont senator. Among such voters, the second place belongs to Buttigieg, who enjoys the support of 15 percent of young voters. Only 7 percent of them support Biden.

The inverse is the case among voters 50 on over, where Biden leads with 33 percent support. The former vice president is followed by Klobuchar, who is polling at 18 percent among older voters, and Buttigieg, who is polling at 14 percent. Sanders is supported by only 12 percent of Iowans older than 50.

Sanders is also popular among voters who consider themselves “very liberal.” In that group, the senator leads the field with 46 percent of the vote. Warren is in second place at 21 percent and Biden in third at 12 percent. The Vermont senator also leads among “somewhat liberal” voters, with 25 percent of the vote. Biden is in second place, polling at 20 percent. Twenty-eight percent of moderate and conservative voters support the former vice president, and 18 percent of them support Sanders.

Given that Iowa is a caucus state, voters’ second choices play a key role in determining the outcome of the race. Only three candidates are viable, polling above the 15 percent threshold; Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg. Among Warren supporters, 46 percent say that Sanders is their second choice and among Buttigieg supporters 19 percent picked Sanders and 18 percent picked Biden. Of Klobuchar supporters, 41 say Biden is their second choice, 26 percent say it’s Warren, and 23 percent have Buttigieg as their second choice candidate.

As Research Assistant Brendan Kane explained, the Warren-Sanders migration could determine the winner.

According to Kane, “an important thing for Sanders’ campaign is how Warren’s support varies across the state. Sanders is the second choice of nearly half of Warren supporters, and she is right on the edge of the 15 percent viability threshold in the first, second and third congressional districts, compared to the fourth district where she is at just six percent.”