NFL Playoff Picture: Predicting The Winner Of The AFC West
The AFC West, to the surprise of many, has become the best division in the NFL in 2016. The division, as ESPN breaks down, includes three seven-win teams heading into Week 11, which is quite an accomplishment considering only one team in the league has more than seven wins. The AFC West is one of the few divisions in football in which there isn’t a clear-cut favorite, as the division is a three-way tossup at this point.
We held serve in the #AFCWest this week.
Big one coming up on @SNFonNBC.
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— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 17, 2016
The Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oakland Raiders are all potential Super Bowl contenders, but only one of them will end up winning the AFC West. One team will ultimately emerge as the division champion, while the other two will hope to solidify a wild-card spot at season’s end. Let’s take a closer look at each team to see which of the three will end up being champions of the AFC West in 2016.
Denver Broncos
The defending Super Bowl champions have won the AFC West each of the last five years, but they find themselves in a dogfight this year, putting that streak in jeopardy. The Broncos are content being 7-3 at this point in the season, but there’s no denying they’ve had some good fortune in a couple of those wins. Of course, the Broncos had plenty of close calls last year as well, and it didn’t stop them from winning the Super Bowl. Denver has been plagued by inconsistency on offense this year, much like last year. The difference is that the Broncos haven’t been as dominant on defense as they were a year ago.
However, ESPN reports that several of Denver’s injured defensive players may be able to return after their bye in Week 11, allowing their defense to return to full strength. A stronger defense will pay big dividends down the stretch, especially with the Broncos playing three of their final six games against AFC West opponents. Denver may be able to ride its defense to an AFC West title as they did last year, but issues with the offensive line and running game could hold them back in a more competitive division.
Kansas City Chiefs
By virtue of a tie-breaker with the Raiders and a five-game winning streak, the Chiefs are currently on top of the AFC West. Offensively, the Chiefs are nothing special, as they don’t throw the ball down field with quarterback Alex Smith and their wide receivers are average at best. However, a decent running game and a quarterback who plays it safe has been good enough to get them to the postseason in two of the last three years.
Who's the favorite to win the AFC West? Our Football Power Index likes the @Chiefs. https://t.co/tFW5GwtMWk
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 15, 2016
The difference in 2016 that has the Chiefs contending for the AFC West title is their defense. Kansas City’s defense allows less than 20 points per game, but to be fair, they haven’t played too many teams that are potent offensively, and so they’ll be tested later in the season. The Chiefs will have a challenging schedule down the stretch with road trips to Denver, Atlanta, and San Diego, so the Chiefs may have to win some difficult games away from home to win the AFC West.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are easily the biggest surprise in the AFC West this year, and arguably the NFL. Quarterback Derek Carr has received many of the headlines when it comes to Oakland’s ascent in the AFC West this year, and deservedly so, but the Raiders also have one of the top running games in the NFL behind the trio of Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington, and Jalen Richard. That kind of balance on offense makes them one of the most difficult teams in the NFL to face.
At the same time, the Raiders are in the bottom half of the NFL defensively, which has led to some close games. Oakland has two wins this year by a single point, and two more wins by less than a touchdown. While the Raiders should be commended for winning those close games, constantly playing tight games with a mediocre defense is like playing with fire. The Raiders also have to play all three of their AFC West rivals on the road during the final month of the season, a schedule that’s not conducive to winning a division title.
AFC West Prediction
The AFC West, all things considered, is still Denver’s to lose. As we saw last season, a healthy Broncos defense can carry Denver to a championship, whether it’s an AFC West division title or a Super Bowl. Oakland’s mediocrity on defense will be their downfall late in the season, and while the Chiefs are also strong on defense, Kansas City’s offensive playmakers pale in comparison to Denver’s, making the Broncos the most balanced of the three teams. When all is said and done, the Broncos will be AFC West champions in 2016.
[Featured Image via Ronald Martinez/Getty Images]
