Presidential Polls: Romney Takes Lead In Electoral College Projection

For the first time, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney is ahead in the Real Clear Politics electoral college map for the first time.

Based on a synthesis of polling data which sometimes runs behind the actual trends, RCP gives the Romney/Ryan ticket 206 electoral votes versus 201 for Obama/Biden. At least 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

RCP indicates that the following states are either solid for Romney or leaning in that direction. Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. RCP has only four states as solidly in the Obama camp, with 10 states (representing 131 electoral votes) in the toss-up category.

On a national basis, Gallup has Romney ahead 51-45 as of today among likely voters. The Washington Times indicates that Romney is doing better in the Gallup poll than any recent elected president at this point in the campaign dating back to 1976.

Separate polling data suggests that Romney is gaining in Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and other battleground or swing states including Pennsylvania.

Rasmussen today has the election tied at 48-48, but is also indicating the tomorrow’s polling may show a slight post-debate boost for Romney.

According to the Pew Research Center, Romney is ahead on favorability (whatever that means) by 50 to 49 percent over Obama. The Washington Examiner explains that “That is a stunning turnaround from March, when Obama’s favorable rating in Pew was about twice Romney’s, 55 percent to 29 percent.”

Writing in The Hill, political columnist A.B. Stoddard, generally regarded as a liberal, suggests that Democrats are whistling past the graveyard despite all the post-debate hoopla if they think the second showdown between the two candidates on Tuesday night changed the trajectory of the presidential campaign:

“President Obama is losing. So says the latest Gallup poll, and so do those swelling numbers in key states like Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia and Ohio.

“Democrats say wait, he won the second debate. They are holding their breath, hoping polls next week will show that this week’s debate brought the herky-jerk of the campaign back full swing, with Obama back to his September lead in the swing states and poised to win. But with two weeks to go, a sudden surge in voter support for a president as unpopular as this one, in an economy this weak, is simply hard to believe …

“Indeed, though President Obama was deemed the debate winner by numerous snap polls this week, the polls show just how firm Romney’s support has grown. In every poll he beat Obama by a wide margin on who is stronger on the economy.”

Who do you think will be elected president on November 6, 2102?