Gary Johnson Polls: As Donald Trump Stumbles, The Libertarian Candidate Is Now Within Striking Distance In At Least Three States
Gary Johnson has seen his poll number tick up steadily in the wake of Republican Donald Trump’s collapse, and now the Libertarian Party’s candidate is in striking distance of winning in at least three states.
October has traditionally been a month of reckoning for third-party candidates, with most voters gravitating toward the major parties as Election Day nears and the race tightens. But this year the opposite is happening — a series of scandals have hit Donald Trump hard, including a number of women coming forward to accuse him of sexual assault — and the race is widening rather than tightening. That has given third-party candidates the opportunity to grow at a time when they are normally losing supporters.
Johnson and running mate Bill Weld have been putting their focus on the states where they and the Libertarian Party have polled the highest, mostly in the Rocky Mountain states where there is already a strong strain of libertarians. And new polling suggests that those efforts are paying off, with Johnson and Weld surging in areas as Trump’s scandals take a toll on right-leaning voters.
The polls now suggest that Gary Johnson could have a real chance to win in Alaska, where he is on the heels of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The Alaska Dispatch News noted that a poll conducted from September 28 to October 2 — before the bulk on Donald Trump’s accumulating scandals — found that Gary Johnson was already surging.
“It could be a big year for third-party candidates in traditionally red Alaska, and a tighter-than-usual race for Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a new statewide poll of registered voters for Alaska Dispatch News.
“Trump led the pack with 36.1 percent, followed by Democrat Hillary Clinton at 30.6 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 17.9 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 6 percent. Nine percent were undecided.”
Johnson could also have a shot in Utah, where a Deseret News presidential poll found a tight four-way race, with Trump and Clinton tied at 26 percent support, independent Evan McMullin with 22 percent, and Johnson with 14 percent.
As the race for president grows more certain and Hillary Clinton builds toward what may be an insurmountable electoral college lead, it seems that Gary Johnson may be pulling supporters from both candidates. While he is on Trump’s heels in traditionally red Alaska, he is also moving in on Hillary Clinton in New Mexico, which has been solidly blue in the last few cycles.
Democrats are so worried about Gary Johnson they’re running an attack ad https://t.co/ag0RG5hJ0Y pic.twitter.com/ddvASjwdDZ
— VICE News (@VICENews) October 8, 2016
A poll from the Albuquerque Journal showed that the state’s former governor has the support of roughly one quarter of voters — taking 24 percent support to 35 percent for Clinton and 31 percent for Trump.
Some local experts believe that race could now be up for grabs.
“The election is close in New Mexico,” Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc., told the Albuquerque Journal. “The bottom line is that New Mexico is more competitive than I expected.”
If Johnson can continue to rise, he could be poised for an accomplishment not seen in more than 20 years. The last time that a third-party candidate was the runner-up in any state was in 1992 when independent Ross Perot defeated sitting President George H.W. Bush in Maine and Democratic challenger Bill Clinton in Utah.
36 hours on the campaign trail with Gary Johnson https://t.co/PFW5u9zHks pic.twitter.com/UsVXhcgpW7
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 9, 2016
It has been nearly 50 years since a third-party candidate has actually won a state, with George Wallace of the American Independent Party taking several southern states in 1968.
Even if Gary Johnson can’t deliver a win for the Libertarian Party in Alaska, the polls still point to a major accomplishment for the party, the Libertarian Republic noted. Johnson is now predicted to take 12.3 percent of the vote in Alaska — in polling conducted before Trump’s latest scandal — which would itself be six times the support the party received in 2012. And his national polling suggests that Johnson will become the first third-party candidate to crack 5 percent nationally since Perot in 1996.
[Featured Image by George Frey/AP Images]
