The First Presidential Debate Is Tomorrow: What Are The Debate Predictions For Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump?
Monday’s first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is one of the most highly anticipated political events in recent memory. Aside from the usual questions that swirl around any presidential debate – such as the candidate’s views on the economy and international relations – people are also interested in personal issues. For instance, will Donald Trump be able to avoid behaving like Donald Trump for a full 90 minutes?
Prediction: at tomorrow night's @HofstraU debate, Trump won't use RPerry smart glasses to trick viewers. He'll lie pic.twitter.com/j9P7FNwba0
— RiotWomenn (@riotwomennn) September 25, 2016
As pointed out by the New York Daily News, Donald Trump will probably come to the first presidential debate intending to seem as calm and rational – not to mention presidential – as possible. At this point, you would think he must recognize that his bloviating, threatening, insinuating manner isn’t really going to work this time.
On the other hand, what Trump intends to do – and what his campaign handlers have told him to do – is not necessarily what will happen. Donald Trump has a long history of going off script and saying the first thing that pops into his head. Almost invariably, this will be something shocking, highly offensive, and damaging to his own campaign.
Clinton's Firewall Steady in Key Battleground States https://t.co/oO8RwubfsI
— The Weekly Standard (@weeklystandard) September 21, 2016
It’s only been by avoiding this behavior – somewhat – over the last few weeks that Trump has managed to make things a bit closer in the battleground states. It’s quite possible that a few sharp questions from the moderator or a stinging rebuttal from Hillary Clinton will cause Donald Trump to lose the tenuous hold he has on his own temper and rationality.
From Clinton’s perspective, the former Secretary of State needs to be prepared for Donald Trump to say or do virtually anything. In the last 24 hours, Trump has floated the idea of having Gennifer Flowers – who reputedly had an affair with Bill Clinton – sitting in the front row of the debate. Although Trump’s alarmed campaign staff quickly shot this idea down, who knows what Donald Trump will actually do?
If Clinton allows herself to become rattled by the antics of her opponent, this could – in theory – give Trump the kind of debate advantage he wants. At the same time, Trump behaving like a bully on the national stage and embarrassing himself in this way could actually benefit Clinton. It might even be an effective strategy for her to provoke Trump into being himself.
Viewers tuning in expecting to see Jill Stein or Gary Johnson on the stage will be disappointed. Given their poor performance in the polls, both candidates have been denied an opportunity to join in the first presidential debate. Whether a sudden upswing in their poll numbers could occur that would allow them to participate in later debates is unclear.
As a CNN interview with Debate commission Co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf makes clear, the moderators in all of the debates will have complete control over what specific questions or follow-up questions they asked the candidates. While the broad topics have been established, the specific questions could relate to almost anything.
This means that NBC’s Lester Holt on Monday night could take Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in directions they don’t want to go. More than this, he can follow-up with questions designed to catch either candidate in a mistake or a lie.
Donald Trump has preemptively tried to insist that moderator Holt not serve as a “fact checker” during the debate. Instead, Trump believes that Clinton should have to point out Trump’s mistakes herself. However, since previous moderators haven’t stuck to that role, it’s unlikely that Holt will restrict himself in this way.
This is a significant disadvantage for Donald Trump, given that he often makes statements that are later proven untrue, inaccurate, or totally absurd. Certainly, Trump would rather be able to make his blustering, red-faced statements without anyone but Hillary Clinton being able to refute them. Viewers would be much more likely to believe that Trump was talking out of his – ear – if it was Holt saying it rather than Clinton.
[Feature Image by (R) Sara D. Davis/Getty Images and (L) Matt Rourke/AP Photo]
