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Hillary Clinton Vs. Donald Trump Polls: Clinton Expands Her Lead, But Reliable Professor Says Trump Will Win

By Phillip Dengler
Published on: 07:51 PST, Sep 24, 2016

Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump continues to trail Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was released on Friday afternoon. The poll, which was conducted from September 16-22 and included 1,559 likely voters from all 50 states, had a margin of sampling error of three percentage points. As usual, the poll was conducted online.

“Democrat Hillary Clinton had a four-percentage point advantage in support over Republican Donald Trump ahead of their first U.S. presidential debate, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll released on Friday. The Sept. 16-22 opinion poll showed that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 37 percent supported Trump. Clinton has mostly led Trump in the poll during the 2016 campaign, though her advantage has narrowed since the end of the Democratic and Republican national conventions in July.”

While both candidates have gone back and forth in this particular poll over the past few weeks, Clinton’s current lead of four percentage points is outside the margin of sampling error of three percentage points. That means she should be considered in the lead.

Clinton has led Trump in the Reuters/Ipsos poll for much of the past year. While Trump took the lead after the Republican National Convention, Clinton quickly rebounded after the Democratic National Convention. After a few questionable public comments by Trump, Clinton’s lead expanded to double digits. It appeared as though Clinton was going to run away with the election, but Trump has been slowly chipping away at her lead.

As the Inquisitr reported, Trump actually led Clinton 40 points to 39 points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted from August 26 to September 1. Since the margin of sampling error was three percentage points, both candidates were considered even. Regardless, it was a drastic change from when Clinton’s lead was as high as 14 points.

More important for Trump, he is now cutting into Clinton’s lead for crucial swing states. As the Inquisitr reported, Clinton now only has a 60 percent chance to win the election by 18 electoral votes. As recently as August, Clinton had a 95 percent chance of winning the election by 108 votes in the Electoral College.

In addition to being the projected winner of Florida, according to Reuters/Ipsos, Trump is also leading Clinton in swing-state North Carolina. As Breitbart reports, 43 percent of the sample identified as Democrat while only 33 percent identified as Republican.

“The poll showed that 45 percent of the 1,024 likely North Carolina voters surveyed favored Trump over the 43 percent who favored Clinton. That puts the two rivals in a statistical tie.”

The results fell inside the margin of sampling error, so both candidates should technically be considered tied. Regardless, Trump has been gaining support from new voters over the past month.

While Clinton is still the likely winner of the election, a prominent and reliable professor believes that Trump is going to eventually come out on top. As the Washington Post reports, professor Allan Lichtman has predicted the winner of the popular vote in every single election since 1984. While there is only one election every four years, it is still impressive that Lichtman has been right on every single one.

While Lichtman notes that Trump is a difficult candidate to assess, he still believes that he will be the winner in November.

“Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.”

As Lichtman notes, his prediction is not an endorsement for Trump. He is simply using a scientific formula, and the results show that Trump is going to defeat Clinton.

With November’s election a little over a month away, the polls between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton should continue to be highly volatile. Neither candidate is particularly liked among the general public, but one of them is going to come out on top. Monday’s debate should bring a little more clarity towards a race that has been anything but clear.

[Featured Image by Sean Gallup/Getty Images]

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