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Look Out For Falling Chinese Spacecraft, ‘Heavenly Palace’ Space Lab Set To Crash To Earth

By Coburn Palmer
Published on: 08:40 PST, Jun 12, 2016

China’s first space station, nicknamed the Heavenly Palace, has stopped operating and may soon begin its long fall to Earth, but no one is quite sure when that will happen or where it will land.

The Tiangong-1, which has been circling the Earth since 2011, has stopped operating and Chinese officials have been unable to regain control of the spacecraft meaning it may soon plummet uncontrollably to Earth.

Officials like Dean Cheng, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told Space.com the fact China isn’t talking about its doomed satellite means it could have already started its long fall to Earth.

“That would seem to suggest that it’s not being deorbited under control. That’s the implication. When you deorbit somewhat larger items, you would have a ‘best practices’ policy of making a controlled re-entry.”

It’s the same space station fictionally displayed in the 2013 movie Gravity staring Sandra Bullock.

Launched in 2011, the Heavenly Palace is part of China’s effort to put its own module space station into orbit around the Earth. During the first stage of the program, the Heavenly Palace space lab was used to test docking procedures with China’s Shenzhou spacecraft.

After completing its mission, the space lab was powered down as China began long-term tests on important structural components and computer systems.

It was scheduled to be deorbited in a controlled burn two years ago and replaced with the larger Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3 models, but Chinese officials decided to leave it in orbit. Now, the station, which is critically low on fuel, has lost the ability to navigate itself thanks to computer failure, Cheng told Space.com.

“This will be an interesting test of whether or not China is going to be more open about its space program writ large.”

It’s likely the Tiangong-1 will crash into the ocean or an unpopulated area when it falls from the sky. However, amateur satellite tracker Thomas Dorman, who has been documenting flyovers of the Heavenly Palace space station, warned Sputnik News about the damage the falling spacecraft could potentially cause.

“If I am right, China will wait until the last minute to let the world know it has a problem with their space station. It could be a real bad day if pieces of this came down in a populated area. Remember, sometimes, the odds just do not work out, so this may bear watching.”

Since China is keeping silent on the fate of its first space station, the rest of the world can only wonder and speculate about its fate.

Other observers, like senior astrodynamicist T.S. Kelso at the Center for Space Standards & Innovation, say it’s possible the Chinese space station isn’t in any trouble at all. He points to the recent boost by the Heavenly Palace’s engines that brought it into a higher orbit as evidence everything is under control, reports Space.com.

“That might be why the Chinese aren’t responding…they probably don’t understand why they would need to.”

For now, the station appears to be asleep, but in a stable orbit. However, if nothing else changes the Heavenly Palace will fall to Earth sometime in 2017, Kelso said.

For now, China is continuing with plans to expand its ambitious space program. The Tiangong-2, the successor to the Heavenly Palace, will launch in September with a manned Shenzhou-11 mission scheduled a month later.

China’s first robotic cargo ship, the Tianzhou-1, is scheduled to launch in 2017 atop a Long March rocket and dock with the Tiangong-2. Plans also continue to place a 60-ton medium-sized space station in orbit sometime in 2018, with additional modules to be added later. China’s own Hubble Telescope will orbit alongside the space station.

Where will you be when China’s space station comes crashing down to Earth?

[Photo credit: YouTube screenshot from Tiangong scene in Gravity.]

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