Big 12 Expansion Rumors: Three Bold Predictions Ahead Of Conference’s Decision

As the Big 12 president make their way to Irving, Texas next week, expansion talks will dominate the news being reported from those meetings.

That will be the setting for one of the most important meetings in the Big 12 Conference’s history, according to Dennis Dodd at CBS Sports. One topic that’s certainly going to be covered thoroughly by the presidents will be expansion.

The reason for the expansion rumors is the presentations the presidents are set to listen to during the conference. Navigate Research will be discussing how adding schools will increase the Big 12 Conference’s likelihood of reaching the college football playoffs by as much as 10-15 percent annually.

Additionally, Chris Bevilacqua — a veteran media analyst who operates the Bevilacqua Helfant Ventures — will discuss how a league network could add millions in revenue for the Big 12. Increasing the Big 12 Conference’s revenue is one of the driving forces for presidents, potentially trumping the possibility of increased access to the college football playoffs.

Expansion rumors reignited heavily after the Big 12 Conference’s athletic directors and football coaches met in Phoenix earlier this month. After hearing the same reports, speculation coming out of the meeting focused on the league potentially adding new members with invitations being extended as early as this summer, The Inquisitr reported.

Rumors have suggested as many as 10 different schools are candidates for the potential Big 12 openings. Schools that have most often been named likely expansion targets include BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF.

Big 12 expansion primer: Everything you need to know vis @kbohls @BDavisAAS @klyttleAAS https://t.co/8CjPuMrtFV pic.twitter.com/A6fniQpA4F

— Hookem.com (@bevobeat) May 20, 2016

Although the meetings between Big 12 presidents are expected to produce more questions than answers, the types of questions being asked could predict whether expansion is on its way. Should the Big 12 decide to expand, here are three bold predictions about what a future conference alignment will look like and what it took to get there.

1. TCU Will Be The Swing Vote

As previously reported, the Big 12 Conference requires a super majority of 75 percent of the schools on important items like expansion. Rumors have persisted that seven schools (70 percent) are already in agreement about adding members to the Big 12. Rumors suggest the hold-outs are led by the University of Texas, an institution that has several reasons to prevent increasing the league count to 12 schools or beyond.

Texas Christian University and Texas Tech are also rumored to be the hold-outs. In TCU’s case, the Horned Frogs are repaying a debt to the Longhorns, as rumors suggested Texas brokered the deal that included TCU in previous expansion. If the conference decides expansion is the correct course for the league, expect TCU to be the institution that breaks from the ranks of dissenters, primarily because the Horned Frogs would view expansion as essential to the league’s survival.

2. A Power 5 School Will Join The Big 12

The Group of 5 Conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Sun Belt Conference, Mountain West Conference) know that the Big 12 Conference is likely to be these schools’ last chance into the Power 5 Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, PAC 12, SEC). Schools like Colorado State and UCF have been actively pursuing expansion since 2015, and rumors suggest either UConn or BYU are likely locks for expansion.

While a school from the Group of 5 Conferences may be invited, expect a Power 5 school to be the top candidate for expansion. Rumors have suggested that Arizona State University and the University of Arizona are two candidates to join the Big 12 from the Power 5 Conferences. The schools’ profiles fit into the perceived Big 12 criteria for expansion, including expanding into large markets (Phoenix — No. 12 in TV markets according to a recent survey) and adding flagship state institutions.

3. The Big 12 Stops Pursuing A League Network

One of the reasons behind expansion would be for the Big 12 to add a conference network. The league would join the Big 10, PAC 12 and SEC as conferences that have built league networks. These networks are seen as important resources, providing both exposure for league schools and millions for the Big 12 Conference’s coffers.

If the Big 12 votes in favor of expansion, expect the Big 12 to forgo adding a conference network — for now. In addition to waning support for league networks, the Big 12 would also have to deal with Texas and its $15 million annual revenue source from the Longhorn Network.

Rumors have suggested that Texas would rather leave the league than lose its Longhorn Network, and the conference would need the infrastructure the Longhorn Network could provide to get a league network started. The Big 12 may not have the desire to further upset Texas after voting for expansion, potentially tabling this to appease the Longhorns.

What bold predictions would you forecast with regard to Big 12 expansion rumors? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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