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Bernie Sanders Gains 15 Points In New York Emerson Poll

By Reno Berkeley
Published on: 19:50 PST, Apr 8, 2016

In the latest Emerson polls of New York, Bernie Sanders has gained 15 points since the last poll taken on March 17. According to the pollster, Hillary Clinton maintains a comfortable lead at 56 percent, with Sanders trailing at 38 percent.

The jump is arguably significant in the New York Democratic primary race, and Sanders’ recent wins in ethnically diverse states such as Washington and Hawaii have given him a boost in support among uncommitted voters. Both Clinton and Sanders consider New York to be important in in the race to win the nomination, as the state has a total of 291 delegates at stake. Forty-four of those are super delegates.

The poll surveyed nearly 325 Democratic primary voters from a random list of phone numbers, with a large majority of White/Caucasian responses. The polling society used only landlines to collect data from likely voters. As such, the respondents skewed older, since the majority of people under the age of 35 do not own landline phones.

Most of the respondents fell into the 55-74 age group. The second largest group of respondents fell into the 35-54 age group. Most lived in either Upstate New York or in the western portion of the state. The April 8 poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.

Although Emerson’s polls are not always accurate, its April 4 poll did show Sanders with a modest lead going into Wisconsin’s primaries. Sanders won Wisconsin with 56.6 percent of the vote. He also won 71 out of 72 counties, and lost Milwaukee County by a mere 3.7 percent.

According to a report in the New York Times, Sanders needs to take at least 56 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to get ahead of Clinton by the time of the Convention in July.

There are multiple reasons that Sanders could be experiencing an upswing in support in New York, one of which could have to do with the recent Panama Papers leak. On April 3, German news outlet Sûddeutsche Zeitung revealed a massive data leak stemming from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca. The leak implicated tax evasion and money laundering schemes on a global scale, and Hillary Clinton and her campaign manager were both linked to it.

The revelations that she supported the Panama Free Trade Agreement while Secretary of State and also that her campaign manager is tied to Russian banks and possibly Vladimir Putin may have soured some voters against her.

Another reason for Sanders’ uptick in support could be the Clintons themselves. In recent days, both Hillary and former President Bill Clinton have clashed with Black Lives Matter protesters. On Thursday night, one protester admonished Bill for his 1994 crime bill, which disproportionately affected the Black community. Clinton accused the woman of supporting drug dealers and murderers.

The backlash was swift, but neither Clinton apologized. On the contrary, the former president only said he was “almost” tempted to apologize, and only for the way he reacted to her.

Perhaps the most logical reason Bernie Sanders is gaining support in New York could simply be that more potential voters are learning about him. One of Sanders’ biggest obstacles in his campaign has been overcoming a lack of name recognition, something Hillary Clinton hasn’t had to confront. Yet when people learn about Sanders, they tend to want to know more about him. While some voters may not agree with his policies, they are attracted by his sincerity, honesty, and long track record of consistency.

Emerson’s poll data were released before Sanders revealed that he had been invited to a symposium on social and economic issues at the Vatican. Although Pope Francis did not invite him personally, the Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, who is also the pope’s aide, did invite him. Although Sanders is not slated to speak, he will be there to offer a unique perspective on U.S. economic issues.

The invitation to the Vatican may give New York Catholics a reason to take a second look at Sanders, and could possibly give him a slight edge over Clinton in the coming weeks. The state has a significant Jewish and Catholic population.

New York Democrats will head to the polls on April 19. If Bernie Sanders continues his current upswing in support, he could realistically overtake Clinton in the most important primary of the Northeast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDs0uHmcfYQ

[Photo: Eric Thayer/Getty Images]

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