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Trump For President: Will The Republican Front Runner Sweep On Super Tuesday? Did Marco Rubio Break Trump’s Momentum?

By Louis Babcock
Published on: 10:03 PST, Feb 27, 2016

The Trump For President campaign is rolling into Super Tuesday with quite a bit of momentum which is causing the Republican establishment to start to really panic. Yesterday, Trump stole the news cycle by holding a press conference where New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsed Trump for president of the United States. With the country just days away from Super Tuesday, how is Donald Trump projected to do in each state compared to Rubio and Cruz?

Why just these three men? Trump, Rubio, and Cruz are the top three in virtually every poll for all of the Super Tuesday states. In the event that Kasich or Carson show up in the top three of any poll, they will be listed. The polling data is based on most recent polls listed at Real Clear Politics. The plus/minus column indicates the margin of error for the poll listed.

  • Alabama, with 50 delegates, has Trump with 36 percent, Rubio at 23, and Cruz at 16. The margin of error for the Opinion Savy poll is 4.6 percent. Poll was dated for Feb. 25 and Feb. 26.
  • Alaska has 28 delegates and is a caucus state. The most recent poll, Dispatch/Ivan Moore, was dated Jan. 1 to Jan. 12. Trump sits on top with 28 percent, Cruz with 24 and Rubio a distant third at 7 percent. No margin of error was listed.
  • Arkansas and its 40 delegates may be the tightest race between the three on Tuesday. The Talk Business/Hendrix College poll dated Feb. 4 shows Cruz in the lead at 27 percent with Trump and Rubio tied at 23. The margin of error for this poll is 3.3 percent.
  • Georgia, with 76 delegates has three polls that are dated from Feb. 21 to Feb. 23. TEGNA/Survey USA has Trump leading with 45 percent, Rubio with 19 and Cruz at 16. Margin of error is listed at 3.8 percent. The Fox 5 Atlanta poll has Trump at 34 percent, Rubio at 22 and Cruz at 20 with a margin of error of 3.6 percent. The WSB-TV/Landmark poll has Trump leading with 32 percent, Rubio at 23, and Cruz at 19 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. The average of these three Georgia polls has Trump at 37.0, Rubio at 21.3 and Cruz at 18.3.
  • Massachusettes with 42 delegates at stake, shows Trump with his largest lead in any of the Super Tuesday states. The WBUR/MassInc poll dated Feb. 21 to Feb. 23 has Trump at 40 percent, Rubio at 19, Kasich also with 19 and Cruz at 10. The margin of error is listed at 4.9 percent. The Emerson poll that was dated at Feb. 19 to Feb. 21 shows Trump with 50 percent of the vote, Rubio with 16, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 10. The margin of error for Emerson is 5.7 percent. The average of these two polls has Trump leading with 45.0 percent of the vote, Rubio in a distant second at 17.5, Kasich finally showing up in the top three at 16.0 and Cruz at 10.0.
  • Minnesota and its 38 delegates is another caucus state. The most recent poll conducted in Minnesota, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon, was conducted over a month ago from Jan. 18 to Jan. 20. Rubio was leading at 23 percent, and Trump is in third with 18 percent. No margin of error was listed.
  • Oklahoma has 43 delegates. The Oklahoman poll shows Trump is in the lead here with 29 percent, Rubio sitting at 21, and Cruz nipping at his heels at 20 percent. Margin of error for this poll is 4.9 percent.
  • Tennessee and its 58 delegates have not had a poll since November. The race has changed so dramatically that it would not even be worth listing the data.
  • Texas and its 155 delegates is the holy grail of Super Tuesday and the home state of Ted Cruz. Five polls have been taken over the last week in Texas. Instead of listing them all here, only the average of the polls will be discussed. With no real surprise, Cruz is leading with an average of 34.0 percent of the vote, Trump follows with 26.8, and Rubio sits at 18.2. Texas has a rule in which a “trigger” based on margin of victory could turn Texas into a winner takes all state. If the winner can acquire 50.1 percent of the vote in Texas, that person will take home all of the 155 delegates. If that magic number is not hit then the delegates will be divided up proportionally. Based on polling, it does not appear that the 50.1 percent margin will be hit in the Lonestar State.
  • Vermont with only 16 delegates is likely going to be similar to what we saw in New Hampshire. According to the Castleton University poll dated for Feb. 3 to Feb. 17, Trump leads with 32 percent, Rubio a distant second at 17, and Cruz at 11.
  • Virginia has 49 delegates up for grabs. The average of the Monmouth, Roanoke College, and Christopher Newport University polls, dated from Feb. 3 to Feb. 24 have Trump on top with 35.7 percent, Rubio in second with 20.7, and Cruz at 16.0.
  • Wyoming and its 29 delegates is the last state on the list. Wyoming is a caucus state with their last poll having been conducted last July. No current results listed.

Trump will be competing for 624 delegates on Tuesday. In order to become the Republican nominee for President of the United States, 1,237 delegates must be won by one person. In order to start building a large delegate base, candidates need to win and win big on Tuesday. Trump is leading the delegate race currently and is expected to win in at least 10 states on Tuesday which would keep his momentum rolling in the hopes of becoming the next president.

How do you think the Trump For President campaign will do on Super Tuesday?

[Image Via AP Photo/John Bazemore]

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