The latest predictions for the 2016 presidential election from a top analytics firm that has nailed every presidential race since 1980 shows that the final results of the race between the Democratic and Republican nominees will not even be a close call — despite predictions earlier in the summer that showed the 2016 race as perhaps the closest in history.
But the winner of the 2016 election will not be billionaire real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump. While most pundits and prognosticators believe that Trump will not even secure the Republican presidential nomination, even if he did come out of the July 2016 Republican convention with nomination in hand, he will still lose to the Democratic nominee — whoever that nominee turns out to be.
The predictions come from Moody’s Analytics, a top economic analysis firm that says it has never missed on a presidential election prediction, at least since Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter 10 elections ago. In fact, Moody’s called the electoral college vote count in the 2012 election, which saw incumbent Democrat Barack Obama hold off Republican challenger Mitt Romney 332 electoral votes to 206, to the exact figures.
The 2016 presidential election, according to the latest Moody’s predictions, will be closer than 2012 — but not by very much. The latest Moody’s forecast, issued September 30, shows the Democratic nominee gathering 326 electoral votes, while the Republican lags well behind, with 212.
The Moody’s predictions are based on an evaluation of not only political but economic and demographic elements, as well. The landslide win prediction, which will put a Democrat in the White House for a third straight term and fifth of the last seven presidential terms, marks a significant shift in favor of the Democrats.
When Moody’s compiled their data in July, they came up with a prediction that showed the Democrats again winning the 2016 presidential race — but by just two electoral votes , perhaps the closest margin ever.
As for who those two 2016 nominees will be, even the most fearless political prognosticators have not yet been willing to make those predictions. But recent polls show potentially bad news for current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.
According to the election-prediction site FiveThirtyEight.com , the second Republican presidential debate was a turning point for the Trump campaign — and not in a good way .
“The autumn of Trump isn’t quite as ‘high energy’ as the summer of Trump. While The Donald continues to lead in most national polls, his support has fallen since the second Republican presidential debate, on Sept. 16. Also, fewer Republicans like him,” the site wrote on Friday.
“Every live-interview poll conducted in September before the debate had Trump at 27 percent or higher. Every survey since has had him at 26 percent or lower.”
In one poll, conducted by Investor’s Business Daily , Trump now trails former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, with just 17 percent of Republican support compared to Carson’s 24 percent.
On the Democratic side, while former New York Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still enjoys a commanding lead in the polls and most predictions still place her as the party’s likely 2016 presidential nominee, a new poll issued Saturday shows her lead slipping .
In a USA Today /Suffolk University poll, Clinton — who just two months ago claimed a majority of likely Democratic voters as her supporters — has now dropped to just 41 percent backing.
But that figure still far outpaces Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, whose fiery campaign has drawn huge crowds to his campaign stops, but who still scores only 23 percent support among Democrats in the new poll.
Vice President Joe Biden enjoys 20 percent support in the same poll. But Biden has not even decided if he will run for president in 2016 — demonstrating how shaky most election predictions can be at this early stage.
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