Cascadia Subduction Zone: Mega Earthquake Predictions For 2015 Are Megaquake Crazy?

The Cascadia subduction zone has come under intense scrutiny after mega earthquake predictions claimed the Cascadia fault line rip could produce 100 foot tsunamis and a megaquake which would leave California, Oregon, and Washington State looking quite devastated. But do scientists really think the Cascadia earthquake could happen in 2015, or are claims be exaggerated for dramatic effect?

In a related report by the Inquisitr, seismologists estimate that a mega earthquake triggered by the Cascadia subduction zone could have a magnitude of up to 9.2 and last about four minutes, triggering a gigantic tsunami that reaches the coast about 15 minutes later. Kenneth Murphy, who heads FEMA’s Region X, claims “everything west of Interstate 5? along the Northwest coast “will be toast.”

Some in the media took this quote and ran with it. For example, Fox News‘ Shepherd Smith claimed scientists agree that the “worst natural disaster in the history of the nation” will be the Cascadia megaquake. Michio Kaku, a physicist at City College of New York, told Smith this was not an exaggeration.

“The Cascadia fault is an earthquake waiting to happen. We know it’s going to happen with energy 30 times the maximum energy of the San Andreas fault.”

Another website called All News Pipeline went even further by publishing an article by Steve Quayle which claims a “friend” had attended a FEMA meeting and heard something alarming.

“I have a long time friend, who is in law enforcement in one of the Jade Helm states. He is totally logical and factual (sheeple) while I think more out of the box. I have tried to help him see whats going on, but he always calls me a nutjob with too much time on my hands. I just got a phone call from him, he has been attending FEMA Training, and he is now having a meltdown after what they learned.”

What Quayle’s friend learned is that FEMA has allegedly been discussing a natural disaster occurring within the next six months. This event will supposedly affect the banking system, and FEMA is allegedly discussing the possibility of martial law, aid camps, and the “continuity of government.”

In response to this article, All News Pipeline conflated the mega earthquake caused by the Cascadia subduction zone with this possible event discussed by FEMA. Due to rumors like these, the fears surrounding the Cascadia subduction zone started a panic in some communities. Some blogs reported that the New Yorker article started a run on gallon jugs of basic goods like water in the Pacific Northwest. Steve Gemmell, owner of Portland company Earthquake Tech, says he’s received more calls now than in the last five years to have homes retrofitted for earthquakes.

Conspiracy theories aside, do scientists actually believe the Cascadia megaquake could happen in 2015? Dr. Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist and professor at Oregon State University, is largely responsible for the research on the Cascadia subduction zone which was completed in 2012. He concluded that there is a 40 percent chance of a mega earthquake occurring in the Coos Bay, Oregon, region during the next 50 years.

“[M]ajor earthquakes tend to strike more frequently along the southern end – every 240 years or so – and it has been longer than that since it last happened,” Goldfinger added. “The probability for an earthquake on the southern part of the fault is more than double that of the northern end.”

Jay Patton, an OSU doctoral student who is a co-author on the study, noted that the region was long overdue for the big one.

“By the year 2060, if we have not had an earthquake, we will have exceeded 85 percent of all the known intervals of earthquake recurrence in 10,000 years,” Patton said. “The interval between earthquakes ranges from a few decades to thousands of years. But we already have exceeded about three-fourths of them.”

In short, if the mega earthquake predictions are true, then no one is certain when it will happen. It is certain the threat posed by the Cascadia subduction zone is real, but to say the really big one will happen in 2015 cannot be substantiated.

[Image via Vimeo]