This weekend marks the return of Transformers , Michael Bay’s landmark franchises and one of the film industry’s biggest moneymakers. Love it or hate it, the first three Transformers films earned a worldwide nearly $2.7 million dollars since 2007 according to Box Office Mojo –and that doesn’t even include DVD and Blu-ray sales! The question has to be asked, however… is success guaranteed for Transformers: Age Of Extinction ?
Let us start with the indicators of its success, and there are quite a few. To start with the easiest: it’s a Transformers movie. Me just typing the word probably makes the studio millions. It’s the spawn one of the most profitable toy lines ever, spanning 30 years, not even to speak of the three previous Transformers films in the past seven years. Because of this, the appeal is far and wide, ranging from kids who buy the toys, adults who bought the toys, and the rest of the general public who just like explosions.
Next is that this film brings new blood into the Transformers franchise in the form of the already-successful Mark Wahlberg. Shia Labeouf had a good run, but amid all his plagiarism controversy , him deciding to quit being famous , and other general strange behavior , it was clear that the Transformers franchise should no longer be his to carry. Over the course of the franchise, his role had become more and more marginalized, and in general it seemed as though the audience had tired of his character in the Transformers universe.
Finally is the simple fact it’s opening against literally nothing else new, with its fiercest competitors being already a few weeks old (in the form of 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2 ). With such odds being stacked in its favor, Transformers: Age Of Extinction is being tracked anywhere from $96 million (via ScreenRant ) to $110 million (via Rope of Silicon ) on its opening weekend. The most recent film, Transformers: Dark Of The Moon opened in 2011 to $97.85 million, and went on to gain more than $1 billion worldwide. Needless to say, Transformers 4 has the pedigree to break even that number.
But not all numbers are in favor of its success, and even its smartest moves can be double-edged swords. Getting rid of Labeouf, while a smart move, ultimately may lead consumers to believe that the Transformers films have jumped the shark, as many film franchises usually have their ends marked by the absence of the original cast, no matter how good the replacement. Then there is the inevitable fatigue viewers may have with the Transformers films. As great as the action set pieces are, over the course of a two and a half hour film, one can easily become numb. Have audiences grown numb to the excitement that comes with every new Transformers flick? Critics sure have.
On Rotten Tomatoes , Transformers: Age Of Extinction is sitting on a 17% rotten rating (Though 97% of viewers still claim to want to see it). While critics are by no means the final word, such a rating is bound to put off some number of viewers. With many critics claiming it more of the same, it’s bound to disappoint some. In the current age of stellar comic book movies and animated films, is more of the same really going to cut it?
All in all, I predict success, though only at a $93 million opening, at a moderately less successful rate than the previous Transformers . At the end of the day, people love to escape, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Other predictions for the performance of Transformers: Age Of Extinction ? Do you think it’ll make more or less than its predecessors? Sound off in the comments below!